***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.10.2016.-30.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 7.8 7.8 11.7 82.6 59.0 48.2 1.9 5.6 11.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 6.0 6.8 11.6 85.1 60.1 49.2 0.9 4.2 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 9.6 9.5 11.1 79.9 58.3 46.1 1.7 8.0 10.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 3.5 11.0 10.4 71.7 55.5 41.9 1.5 7.9 15.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 2.8 9.5 11.3 84.0 61.3 46.7 3.4 6.2 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 2.0 4.5 10.8 82.7 51.9 44.5 1.9 4.4 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 6.0 5.7 11.4 85.8 58.9 49.2 1.5 4.8 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 12.4 13.0 11.7 87.4 58.2 47.7 2.0 9.2 15.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 2.7 8.7 11.8 85.1 64.5 46.6 2.0 6.6 9.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 2.6 8.3 12.1 86.9 60.8 47.8 3.5 5.1 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 8.7 7.6 10.5 82.6 58.7 46.7 2.7 6.8 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 1.8 5.5 10.5 84.6 56.1 46.9 2.1 3.7 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 2.3 4.9 11.1 86.6 55.3 47.5 2.4 4.6 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 3.6 8.2 13.7 86.5 57.2 47.6 2.9 7.1 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 2.0 4.6 9.5 62.4 51.6 39.6 1.6 4.2 8.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 1.5 4.0 9.6 76.6 55.6 44.1 1.2 3.3 8.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 7.6 8.7 11.8 90.5 67.2 51.0 1.0 5.3 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 8.2 7.7 12.7 84.9 59.0 48.1 2.2 5.6 10.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 7.1 5.9 11.2 83.3 57.8 48.0 1.3 4.2 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 3.4 9.4 14.7 88.8 57.6 48.3 1.6 7.0 12.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 2.4 8.1 10.8 79.7 60.2 44.4 3.1 5.6 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 7.5 6.2 12.1 91.3 64.3 51.3 1.6 4.1 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 2.4 9.4 11.2 84.1 59.3 46.8 1.5 4.9 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 9.0 7.4 12.4 84.8 58.3 47.9 3.7 6.4 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 2.8 6.2 11.4 78.4 56.5 45.3 1.2 5.7 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 1.5 4.8 11.2 87.7 59.5 47.3 1.8 3.5 7.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.2 11.6 80.1 57.8 47.1 0.7 3.8 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 2.4 5.8 9.6 69.0 53.7 42.2 2.2 5.6 7.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 12.6 11.9 13.4 85.2 56.5 47.9 5.8 9.1 14.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 5.4 5.2 11.4 82.6 57.7 48.0 0.9 4.3 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------