***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.10.2016.-23.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 13.3 19.6 15.0 122.3 68.7 59.1 2.2 9.0 17.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 6.3 10.8 14.8 141.3 71.4 62.0 0.5 3.7 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 13.2 20.6 15.7 128.1 70.2 61.2 1.0 10.8 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 9.8 18.1 15.0 102.8 65.4 54.4 3.0 7.0 18.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 10.7 13.4 14.9 104.9 63.3 56.2 2.5 8.2 16.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 5.6 7.2 15.1 117.0 63.9 55.3 0.8 3.8 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 11.4 11.2 14.6 136.0 70.2 61.8 1.2 4.1 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 13.8 16.3 14.9 104.7 62.1 54.2 5.4 10.2 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 10.1 9.5 13.8 101.4 61.2 55.4 5.2 8.1 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 13.0 15.7 14.6 100.7 62.6 54.9 4.5 9.5 22.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 10.0 16.1 16.7 110.9 64.1 56.4 2.3 7.6 16.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 10.6 11.2 14.4 110.0 63.4 55.5 1.6 7.4 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 8.1 11.4 15.3 115.9 64.2 58.2 1.8 6.4 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 18.7 29.3 17.3 125.7 66.6 59.5 7.6 14.7 29.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 7.3 10.1 16.0 105.6 66.8 54.4 1.5 3.5 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 6.5 8.0 14.3 105.7 61.7 54.1 3.0 4.3 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 6.2 7.6 14.7 138.9 72.2 60.8 0.9 2.8 6.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 10.5 15.7 14.4 101.6 62.9 55.5 4.7 7.6 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 10.8 22.0 15.2 141.1 72.5 62.0 2.2 7.6 19.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 13.9 17.4 17.3 103.0 62.8 54.3 4.2 10.9 19.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 10.4 13.7 14.1 109.0 62.9 56.3 2.2 7.6 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 8.8 18.2 15.2 143.4 74.6 61.7 2.3 5.6 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 14.1 19.4 15.8 132.8 68.9 59.9 1.5 11.2 18.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 15.4 16.5 15.3 113.5 64.4 58.3 3.8 12.9 18.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 8.7 19.2 16.8 121.1 67.4 60.3 1.1 4.7 19.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 9.7 17.4 16.6 127.1 69.6 57.6 3.6 6.9 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 10.1 19.3 16.0 123.1 69.5 59.8 2.2 6.4 17.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 8.6 10.7 15.2 106.6 66.3 55.5 2.9 7.5 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 16.9 21.4 15.3 101.2 61.2 54.8 6.3 13.2 22.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 10.1 16.6 15.0 135.5 70.0 61.5 0.8 8.1 15.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------