***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.10.2016.-16.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 11.6 20.2 22.1 158.8 80.2 71.1 0.1 1.5 4.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 11.7 19.8 21.3 173.9 81.8 72.3 0.9 3.7 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 13.8 18.4 21.0 157.0 78.4 71.5 0.1 5.1 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 22.8 35.5 30.8 183.4 82.3 76.3 0.5 2.8 17.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 15.9 23.1 23.9 154.4 77.7 71.3 0.0 4.1 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 21 79 100 22.3 28.0 29.4 169.1 78.6 74.7 1.1 4.3 15.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 10.6 21.5 21.6 173.7 82.2 72.0 0.4 2.6 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 9.4 20.8 25.1 133.8 68.8 65.9 1.8 6.9 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 13.6 17.7 24.1 152.9 76.2 70.7 0.0 5.6 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 8.3 15.5 24.0 136.4 70.6 66.4 0.4 5.6 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 45 55 100 14.3 14.7 24.8 150.6 74.7 68.6 0.0 4.8 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 48 52 100 13.3 15.8 25.0 143.6 69.1 68.0 0.1 2.5 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 47 53 100 13.3 15.4 25.9 139.5 69.5 69.0 0.6 3.3 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 24.2 24.9 22.0 140.3 72.9 68.2 0.1 6.8 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 18.7 26.2 33.4 203.3 84.4 77.1 0.0 1.6 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 15.4 17.3 27.4 155.2 73.9 71.5 0.2 3.3 6.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 8.2 11.4 21.4 181.0 81.6 73.7 0.5 4.4 6.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 45 55 100 17.9 19.2 23.3 133.3 69.1 65.8 1.0 10.0 19.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 13.9 20.8 21.3 171.0 81.1 72.1 0.4 2.8 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 7.0 11.2 24.6 120.9 65.8 62.7 0.8 5.3 11.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 11.3 13.7 23.8 157.5 77.2 71.8 0.1 5.3 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 9.8 12.6 20.7 171.2 79.2 72.5 0.2 4.9 7.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 15.3 23.4 21.6 164.8 78.3 71.2 0.2 2.4 7.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 20.5 24.3 21.7 143.2 73.9 68.7 0.3 8.6 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 13.3 12.0 23.4 147.4 75.0 70.6 1.3 3.2 11.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 20.3 25.1 26.1 149.9 75.0 71.2 0.0 5.1 21.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 11.3 13.5 22.3 154.8 77.1 70.3 0.1 3.5 7.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 13.0 19.7 30.2 182.7 81.9 75.7 0.8 1.3 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 46 54 100 24.1 28.8 23.2 127.9 68.7 64.7 1.9 16.8 27.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 11.7 19.6 21.3 170.8 81.0 71.8 0.8 2.0 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------