***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.10.2016.-06.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 16.6 16.0 14.4 -0.6 44.2 44.3 15.3 16.3 17.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 14.6 15.7 14.5 -0.7 37.6 42.8 15.5 16.2 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 16.9 16.4 14.7 -0.6 43.6 45.1 15.7 16.6 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 10.5 9.4 11.7 -0.6 41.9 45.0 8.7 10.1 11.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 16.7 16.0 13.0 -0.6 44.3 46.3 15.6 16.4 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 16.3 16.0 12.5 0.2 52.9 56.6 14.7 15.8 17.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 14.2 15.4 14.4 -0.7 35.6 42.2 15.3 15.9 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 8.6 8.5 12.2 -0.1 52.8 52.7 7.2 8.3 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 17.1 16.6 13.7 -0.5 48.0 47.5 15.7 16.7 17.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 16.8 16.5 12.9 -0.3 52.0 51.0 15.0 16.3 17.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 16.9 16.4 13.3 -0.4 49.7 49.1 15.5 16.5 17.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 16.9 16.4 12.8 -0.3 49.5 51.2 15.1 16.5 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 17.5 16.7 13.2 -0.1 48.3 52.4 15.5 17.1 17.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 17.5 17.1 13.9 -0.5 49.0 47.1 15.8 17.2 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 15.9 15.0 13.1 -0.5 42.6 45.9 14.7 15.5 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 17.8 17.5 13.1 -0.3 50.5 50.5 16.3 17.4 18.4 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 14.0 15.1 14.1 -0.7 35.8 42.1 14.8 15.6 16.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 16.2 16.0 12.6 -0.2 53.5 52.2 14.3 15.8 16.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 14.7 15.6 14.6 -0.7 39.3 43.4 15.3 16.3 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 14.1 14.0 11.1 0.1 56.8 56.0 12.3 13.9 14.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 17.0 16.2 14.3 -0.6 45.7 45.8 15.7 16.8 17.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 14.8 15.5 14.1 -0.8 37.4 41.6 15.4 16.3 17.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 16.7 16.0 14.7 -0.6 43.1 45.3 15.4 16.4 17.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 17.4 17.1 13.8 -0.4 50.2 48.7 15.9 17.1 17.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 16.2 15.5 13.1 -0.6 44.4 45.4 15.0 15.9 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 17.0 16.6 12.6 -0.1 52.7 52.8 14.9 16.5 17.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 16.5 16.1 13.9 -0.6 44.4 45.1 15.4 16.2 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 16.5 15.8 12.5 -0.5 43.8 46.8 15.0 16.1 17.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 12.9 12.6 12.1 -0.1 53.9 53.5 11.0 12.5 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 14.5 15.4 14.5 -0.7 38.7 43.2 15.4 16.0 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------