***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.10.2016.-06.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 16.6 15.4 13.6 1.3 67.2 62.3 10.9 13.9 15.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 15.6 15.1 13.7 1.4 66.5 63.4 10.9 13.7 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 16.7 16.8 14.0 1.4 66.6 62.7 11.3 14.0 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 9.4 11.0 11.0 1.2 64.1 61.3 6.2 8.6 11.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 16.2 16.0 12.0 1.2 64.6 61.5 12.0 14.4 16.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 16.1 16.3 11.6 1.7 65.3 63.8 11.5 14.5 16.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 15.3 15.2 13.6 1.3 67.0 63.0 10.8 13.5 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 8.6 8.7 11.8 1.7 67.6 64.9 5.3 7.0 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 16.7 16.3 12.8 1.4 65.4 62.6 12.3 14.2 16.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 16.0 16.7 12.4 1.7 66.6 64.4 11.6 13.7 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 16.5 16.5 12.2 1.4 66.8 62.3 12.0 14.4 16.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 16.7 17.1 12.1 1.4 65.8 63.5 11.3 14.3 17.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 16.8 16.1 11.8 1.4 63.0 63.0 11.5 14.4 16.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 16.6 17.0 13.5 1.9 68.5 64.8 11.0 13.3 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 13.5 14.6 11.7 1.2 65.3 62.4 12.3 13.0 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 17.4 16.7 12.0 1.3 64.5 62.0 12.7 15.5 16.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 14.8 14.7 13.6 1.5 68.4 64.0 10.3 13.2 14.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 15.0 15.5 12.6 2.0 66.5 65.4 10.7 12.5 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 15.5 15.4 13.9 1.4 66.2 63.3 11.2 13.8 15.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 13.6 13.8 10.7 1.9 68.8 65.8 10.3 11.8 13.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 16.3 15.9 13.3 1.3 64.8 62.2 11.8 13.6 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 15.4 15.6 13.5 1.4 67.9 63.5 10.9 13.1 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 15.9 15.7 14.2 1.5 67.1 63.4 10.7 13.4 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 16.9 17.5 13.4 1.8 67.6 64.7 11.4 14.1 17.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 15.4 14.3 12.0 1.3 63.8 62.3 11.3 13.7 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 16.7 16.3 11.8 1.5 65.1 65.0 12.5 14.4 16.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 16.1 15.7 13.0 1.3 66.0 62.6 11.9 14.6 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 14.3 15.2 11.4 1.2 63.5 61.6 12.1 13.6 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 13.1 13.0 12.0 2.0 67.7 65.8 8.0 11.3 13.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 15.4 15.2 13.7 1.4 66.8 62.9 11.0 13.3 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------