***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.10.2016.-30.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 13.6 16.5 14.6 0.2 60.8 54.2 13.0 15.9 16.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 13.4 16.0 14.4 0.0 55.6 52.1 13.4 15.0 16.6 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 14.0 17.4 14.8 0.2 59.8 53.7 13.8 16.0 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 6.4 10.0 12.4 0.3 63.2 54.4 7.2 8.1 11.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 13.9 16.8 13.2 0.3 60.8 54.3 13.0 15.9 17.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 17.3 17.0 12.8 1.0 67.7 59.1 13.2 14.6 16.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 13.2 15.6 14.3 0.0 55.8 51.9 13.1 14.7 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 8.9 7.8 12.6 0.7 64.2 57.6 6.4 7.1 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 14.0 17.3 13.8 0.4 61.7 54.7 13.5 15.8 17.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 13.7 16.7 13.1 0.6 63.1 56.6 12.9 15.9 16.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 16.6 17.6 13.3 0.5 61.5 55.5 13.3 15.9 17.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 13.6 16.8 13.1 0.5 63.5 56.0 12.8 15.2 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 18.4 16.9 12.9 0.6 63.3 55.9 13.7 16.0 17.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 13.7 17.2 13.9 0.3 59.4 54.4 14.0 16.1 18.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 13.2 15.5 13.1 0.4 63.1 54.6 13.4 15.0 16.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 14.7 17.8 13.1 0.5 62.9 55.7 14.3 16.5 17.9 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 12.8 14.8 14.1 -0.1 56.3 51.6 12.8 13.9 16.4 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 12.9 16.1 13.0 0.7 60.6 57.2 12.2 15.1 16.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 13.7 15.9 14.6 0.0 56.8 52.3 13.3 15.4 17.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 12.9 13.8 11.4 0.9 62.1 59.5 11.2 12.1 14.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 13.9 17.3 14.3 0.3 61.5 54.1 13.3 16.1 17.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 13.3 15.8 14.1 -0.1 57.0 51.1 13.5 15.6 17.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 13.8 16.4 14.8 0.1 58.0 53.0 13.4 16.0 17.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 14.0 17.8 13.9 0.4 60.0 55.3 13.9 16.0 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 12.9 16.1 13.2 0.3 61.6 54.7 12.8 15.2 16.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 17.9 16.1 12.8 0.5 65.1 56.6 14.1 15.4 16.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 13.4 16.4 14.0 0.2 60.6 54.4 13.6 15.8 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 12.9 15.5 12.8 0.4 62.9 55.0 13.4 14.7 15.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 11.7 12.4 12.5 0.7 59.5 57.6 9.8 10.9 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 13.3 16.0 14.5 0.1 56.3 52.4 13.2 15.0 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------