***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.10.2016.-23.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 14.9 16.2 15.0 -1.0 42.8 42.1 14.9 17.0 18.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 14.8 15.9 15.0 -1.2 40.1 40.7 15.7 17.3 18.1 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 15.2 16.5 15.3 -1.1 40.4 42.1 15.5 18.4 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 10.7 9.6 12.3 -0.7 48.5 45.4 8.3 9.7 12.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 15.3 17.7 13.7 -0.7 46.2 44.9 15.6 18.2 19.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 14.9 16.8 13.1 0.3 51.9 52.5 15.6 16.7 17.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 14.8 15.7 15.0 -1.2 40.2 40.4 15.2 17.7 18.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 7.0 8.4 12.8 -0.3 44.1 48.7 7.1 8.8 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 15.1 17.6 14.4 -0.7 46.0 44.6 15.9 18.0 19.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 14.6 16.4 13.4 -0.5 42.7 47.1 15.3 17.3 18.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 15.1 16.8 14.1 -0.5 44.1 46.8 15.7 17.8 19.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 14.9 16.0 13.5 -0.3 44.0 48.4 15.1 16.8 18.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 15.7 17.4 14.0 -0.3 44.5 48.6 16.3 17.7 19.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 14.9 16.8 14.3 -1.1 37.2 42.7 15.4 17.4 19.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 16.6 16.2 13.9 -0.6 49.4 45.9 14.5 16.2 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 16.0 17.8 13.8 -0.4 45.1 47.7 16.4 18.4 20.0 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 14.1 15.3 14.6 -1.2 39.0 39.6 15.0 16.2 18.0 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 13.9 15.6 13.0 -0.6 39.6 46.7 14.1 16.4 18.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 14.7 15.9 15.1 -1.2 38.9 41.0 15.2 17.6 18.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 11.7 13.5 11.6 -0.1 42.9 50.1 12.0 14.3 15.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 15.2 17.0 14.9 -0.9 45.4 43.0 15.5 18.3 19.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 14.6 15.3 14.6 -1.3 35.7 39.3 15.2 17.0 18.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 14.8 16.1 15.3 -1.1 38.4 42.1 15.4 17.4 18.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 15.0 16.0 14.3 -0.9 36.9 43.9 15.3 18.2 19.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 14.7 16.3 13.8 -0.9 46.0 42.9 15.5 16.6 18.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 15.5 17.5 13.3 0.0 47.5 49.9 15.9 17.7 18.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 15.2 16.9 14.5 -1.0 42.6 42.2 15.8 17.5 18.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 17.6 17.1 13.1 -0.6 48.7 46.6 14.6 17.2 18.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 10.4 11.4 12.6 -0.5 39.9 47.4 10.6 13.4 15.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 14.9 16.0 15.1 -1.1 40.5 41.1 15.7 17.7 18.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------