***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.10.2016.-16.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 97 3 0 100 15.6 15.1 14.5 -3.1 13.6 15.3 16.2 18.6 19.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 92 8 0 100 15.9 15.2 14.6 -3.1 12.0 15.9 16.9 19.0 20.2 30 Becej 27400G00 93 7 0 100 15.8 15.6 14.7 -3.1 14.3 16.8 16.8 18.8 20.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 82 18 0 100 9.5 8.2 11.1 -3.2 11.0 16.4 10.3 11.3 12.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 83 17 0 100 16.3 15.5 12.9 -3.1 14.6 18.1 17.3 19.3 19.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 16.3 16.0 12.4 -2.0 22.7 30.5 17.0 18.1 19.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 94 6 0 100 15.4 14.5 14.5 -3.1 11.0 15.5 16.4 18.3 20.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 7.3 6.6 11.8 -2.7 15.9 23.7 8.2 8.9 11.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 88 12 0 100 16.0 15.6 13.8 -3.0 14.1 18.4 17.5 19.2 20.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 79 21 0 100 15.7 14.9 12.5 -2.9 16.2 21.7 17.0 18.7 19.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 78 22 0 100 16.3 15.5 13.7 -2.9 15.6 21.0 17.3 19.3 20.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 16.5 15.4 12.7 -2.6 15.5 23.6 16.4 18.5 20.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 16.7 16.0 14.0 -2.3 18.2 26.6 17.7 19.2 19.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 84 16 0 100 16.0 15.2 13.7 -3.2 15.6 19.1 17.2 19.7 20.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 85 15 0 100 16.1 15.0 13.8 -2.9 9.1 16.3 17.2 18.0 19.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 77 23 0 100 17.4 16.8 13.5 -2.5 16.7 23.9 17.9 19.7 20.3 30 Nis 06700G01 92 8 0 100 15.2 14.6 14.1 -3.1 11.3 16.1 16.8 17.9 20.0 30 Palic 37000G16 73 27 0 100 15.1 13.9 11.8 -2.9 16.9 23.0 16.5 18.2 19.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 91 9 0 100 15.6 15.0 14.7 -3.1 13.7 16.4 16.9 19.1 20.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 12.8 12.3 10.8 -2.3 21.5 28.3 13.2 14.8 16.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 90 10 0 100 16.0 15.4 14.5 -3.1 13.2 17.5 17.0 19.1 19.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 90 10 0 100 15.8 15.3 14.3 -3.2 12.8 16.1 17.4 18.9 20.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 89 11 0 100 15.9 15.4 14.7 -3.1 15.9 17.8 17.3 19.6 20.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 80 20 0 100 15.9 15.1 13.7 -3.0 15.8 20.0 16.6 19.1 20.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 90 10 0 100 15.7 15.2 13.4 -3.1 13.1 16.3 16.9 18.5 19.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 16.7 15.9 12.6 -2.2 17.2 26.9 17.6 18.7 19.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 93 7 0 100 15.7 15.4 14.0 -3.0 13.8 16.1 16.7 18.4 19.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 79 21 0 100 16.2 15.1 12.5 -3.0 11.5 18.7 17.1 18.2 18.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 71 29 0 100 11.9 11.3 11.6 -2.7 17.9 25.0 11.9 14.2 15.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 92 8 0 100 15.7 15.2 14.7 -3.1 12.7 15.6 16.5 18.4 19.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------