***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.10.2016.-06.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 5.7 4.9 7.3 -0.6 38.5 43.3 4.6 5.3 6.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.4 4.8 6.8 -0.6 35.4 42.1 4.7 5.4 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 6.9 7.4 7.3 -0.6 38.8 42.5 6.9 7.6 8.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 3.0 2.5 4.8 -0.3 44.0 46.2 2.1 2.8 3.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 5.1 4.5 5.5 -0.4 43.1 45.8 3.8 4.9 5.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 4.2 4.1 4.0 0.1 52.8 53.8 3.5 4.0 4.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 4.6 4.7 6.9 -0.6 35.6 41.9 4.6 5.4 6.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -0.3 0.4 4.1 -0.1 48.0 51.5 -0.3 0.5 1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 5.8 5.5 5.9 -0.3 44.7 46.4 5.1 5.5 6.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 5.5 5.2 4.7 -0.2 45.1 48.8 5.0 5.3 5.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 5.1 4.7 5.2 -0.3 43.2 47.1 4.4 4.8 5.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 4.3 4.1 4.7 -0.2 46.5 49.7 3.5 4.2 4.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 3.8 4.3 4.7 -0.1 48.7 50.6 3.9 4.3 4.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 5.4 5.6 5.7 -0.4 41.3 46.3 5.5 5.9 6.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.6 4.9 6.1 -0.3 44.8 47.1 4.8 5.4 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 6.0 5.8 4.8 -0.2 46.2 48.8 5.1 5.9 6.2 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 4.6 4.8 6.6 -0.6 35.7 43.3 4.8 5.3 6.5 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 3.7 3.9 4.2 -0.3 41.9 48.2 3.8 4.3 4.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.7 4.7 6.9 -0.6 36.0 42.2 4.6 5.4 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 1.6 1.0 3.0 0.1 49.5 54.4 0.5 1.0 1.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 5.5 5.0 6.9 -0.5 43.0 44.5 4.6 5.2 6.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 4.2 4.1 6.6 -0.6 34.6 41.6 4.0 4.9 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 5.5 4.8 7.0 -0.5 38.3 43.5 4.7 5.2 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 5.2 4.8 5.6 -0.4 40.2 45.3 4.6 5.0 5.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.4 6.4 -0.5 43.1 44.8 5.1 5.5 6.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 5.0 4.9 4.5 0.1 49.9 52.8 4.3 4.9 5.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 5.8 4.8 6.9 -0.5 40.9 44.4 4.6 5.4 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 4.3 4.0 5.1 -0.2 45.1 47.5 3.4 4.1 4.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 2.8 3.4 3.7 -0.2 44.6 50.3 2.9 3.6 4.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 4.8 5.0 7.0 -0.6 36.0 42.1 4.9 5.7 6.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------