***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.10.2016.-06.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 5.4 5.4 6.3 0.2 52.1 53.6 2.7 5.1 6.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 2.3 4.4 6.0 0.3 53.5 54.7 1.7 4.4 4.8 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 4.4 6.5 6.3 0.2 53.3 54.0 4.2 6.3 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 -1.4 1.8 3.5 0.2 54.3 53.2 -0.3 0.8 2.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 0.9 3.8 4.0 0.2 50.4 53.1 1.3 3.8 4.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 0.1 1.8 2.4 0.1 44.9 52.3 0.7 2.0 4.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 1.6 4.4 6.0 0.3 51.8 54.3 1.8 4.1 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 -2.3 0.0 2.7 0.2 51.6 53.2 -1.4 -0.2 1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 2.1 4.6 4.6 0.2 48.8 54.1 1.7 4.7 5.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 1.7 3.9 3.4 0.2 50.9 54.0 2.3 3.9 5.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 0.5 2.7 3.5 0.1 45.7 51.9 2.1 2.9 5.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 -0.1 2.0 3.0 0.0 46.2 51.3 0.9 2.2 3.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 -0.2 1.3 2.7 -0.1 43.6 50.1 1.0 1.4 5.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 5.4 5.2 4.6 0.3 53.2 54.5 2.9 5.1 5.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 2.1 4.8 4.5 0.2 52.8 53.3 2.3 4.6 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 1.6 3.2 3.0 0.0 44.0 50.8 2.3 4.1 5.6 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 1.8 4.3 6.0 0.4 53.4 55.6 2.6 4.3 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 0.2 2.4 3.0 0.2 51.9 54.2 0.7 2.1 3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 2.0 4.6 6.0 0.3 52.6 54.3 2.1 4.4 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 -2.1 -0.2 1.7 0.3 55.6 54.6 -2.4 -0.5 1.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 1.9 4.5 5.6 0.2 51.4 54.0 1.8 4.5 5.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 1.5 3.3 5.8 0.3 52.3 54.6 2.1 3.2 4.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 4.5 4.1 5.9 0.2 50.7 53.7 2.4 4.1 5.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 1.6 4.0 4.3 0.2 51.0 53.8 1.7 3.9 5.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 2.4 5.2 5.1 0.3 56.0 54.1 1.9 4.5 5.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 0.7 1.5 2.6 -0.1 42.0 49.6 1.1 2.0 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 1.9 4.6 5.8 0.3 53.7 53.8 2.1 4.5 6.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 0.5 2.8 3.6 0.2 52.3 53.2 0.5 2.8 4.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 0.1 2.5 2.7 0.3 54.8 54.5 0.2 1.9 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 2.5 4.9 6.1 0.3 53.3 54.2 2.1 4.8 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------