***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.10.2016.-30.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 2.4 4.1 6.9 -0.3 44.1 47.7 3.1 4.6 5.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 5.4 3.7 6.6 -0.3 44.1 47.6 3.1 4.6 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 7.1 6.1 7.0 -0.3 45.8 47.6 5.3 6.2 8.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 2.7 0.6 4.4 -0.2 42.9 48.3 0.0 2.3 3.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 4.5 3.7 5.0 -0.1 47.0 49.1 2.9 3.9 5.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 3.9 3.2 3.6 0.2 47.9 53.7 1.5 3.3 4.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 5.0 3.3 6.6 -0.2 45.4 48.0 2.9 4.2 6.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 0.2 -0.6 3.7 0.3 48.9 53.7 -1.6 -0.5 1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 5.2 4.2 5.4 -0.1 45.8 49.5 3.7 4.5 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 5.2 4.3 4.3 0.1 46.9 51.9 3.3 4.5 5.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 4.8 4.1 4.6 0.1 47.2 50.9 3.0 4.3 5.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 4.2 3.1 4.2 0.2 46.8 52.2 2.3 3.5 4.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 4.6 3.8 4.0 0.1 46.2 52.1 2.5 4.1 5.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 5.7 5.1 5.3 0.0 49.8 51.2 3.8 5.1 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 2.9 3.7 5.3 -0.2 41.5 47.7 2.8 4.8 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 5.6 4.9 4.2 0.1 47.2 51.2 4.1 5.1 6.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 5.0 4.0 6.5 -0.1 48.1 49.1 2.8 4.2 6.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 3.9 3.1 3.9 0.2 48.1 52.4 2.0 3.1 4.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 5.2 4.1 6.6 -0.3 45.5 47.4 2.7 4.5 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 1.1 0.5 2.7 0.5 54.0 55.4 -1.0 0.5 2.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 5.3 4.6 6.4 -0.2 45.4 48.5 2.8 4.7 6.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 4.4 3.6 6.4 -0.2 50.0 48.3 2.5 3.6 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 5.3 4.7 6.6 -0.2 48.0 48.4 3.0 4.8 5.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 4.5 3.6 5.1 -0.1 47.5 50.3 3.4 3.9 5.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 5.7 4.9 5.8 -0.2 45.5 48.2 3.9 5.2 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 5.0 3.6 3.8 0.1 44.5 51.6 2.4 4.3 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 2.9 5.0 6.5 -0.2 44.2 47.9 3.4 5.5 6.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 4.0 2.3 4.6 -0.1 43.3 48.8 1.6 3.4 4.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 3.6 3.0 3.5 0.3 50.4 53.6 1.4 2.9 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 5.5 4.2 6.7 -0.3 44.3 47.4 3.1 4.5 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------