***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.10.2016.-23.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 4.9 5.5 7.8 -0.7 38.7 44.3 5.4 5.7 6.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 4.5 5.2 7.2 -0.9 37.3 41.4 4.9 5.6 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 7.3 7.6 7.8 -0.8 39.2 43.6 7.3 8.1 8.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 2.1 2.9 5.4 -0.1 47.5 50.1 2.2 3.1 4.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 3.8 5.0 6.2 -0.3 45.4 49.0 4.3 5.1 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.4 5.0 4.7 0.5 57.5 56.9 3.7 4.2 5.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 4.9 5.3 7.2 -1.0 37.3 41.0 4.9 5.6 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 -0.3 0.9 4.7 0.1 53.9 52.4 0.0 0.6 1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 5.0 5.6 6.4 -0.4 43.7 47.7 5.1 5.8 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 4.3 5.6 5.2 -0.2 48.3 49.6 4.6 5.8 6.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 4.1 5.3 6.0 -0.1 48.8 51.3 4.0 5.4 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 3.2 4.5 5.4 0.1 52.7 53.2 3.3 4.4 5.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 5.7 5.4 5.5 0.3 53.0 56.0 3.9 5.1 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 5.2 5.9 6.1 -0.6 42.6 45.3 5.6 6.1 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 4.3 5.2 6.9 -0.1 42.8 50.6 4.9 5.5 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 5.1 6.4 5.6 0.2 53.5 54.3 5.3 5.9 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 4.9 5.3 6.9 -1.0 38.0 41.0 5.1 5.7 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 3.3 4.6 4.7 -0.2 45.6 49.0 3.9 4.8 5.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.9 5.3 7.3 -0.9 37.5 41.7 5.2 5.5 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 0.5 1.9 3.5 0.1 51.9 51.9 0.8 1.8 2.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 4.5 5.3 7.4 -0.6 41.5 46.0 4.9 5.6 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 4.2 4.3 6.9 -1.0 37.4 40.1 4.2 4.7 5.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 4.5 5.4 7.4 -0.7 38.1 43.3 4.8 5.5 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 4.3 5.0 6.1 -0.5 43.1 46.3 4.6 5.2 6.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 5.1 6.1 7.0 -0.5 41.3 46.1 5.3 6.3 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 4.2 5.6 5.3 0.5 55.8 56.8 4.3 5.3 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 5.2 5.9 7.4 -0.6 40.7 45.4 5.7 6.2 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 3.0 3.9 5.8 0.1 49.2 52.3 3.4 3.9 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 2.7 3.9 4.2 -0.2 48.4 49.3 3.2 3.9 4.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 5.2 5.4 7.5 -0.9 37.2 41.9 5.3 6.1 6.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------