***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.10.2016.-16.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 6.0 6.0 8.1 -1.5 25.1 30.6 6.4 7.1 8.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 75 25 0 100 5.6 5.4 7.6 -1.6 22.5 28.4 6.2 7.2 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 72 28 0 100 8.0 7.6 8.2 -1.5 23.9 28.3 8.1 9.5 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 3.5 3.1 5.7 -1.2 26.1 34.1 3.5 4.8 5.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 5.1 5.3 6.9 -1.3 27.9 33.3 5.5 6.0 7.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 4.9 5.0 5.3 -0.4 41.2 47.2 4.7 5.9 6.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 74 26 0 100 5.6 5.8 7.6 -1.7 21.3 27.7 6.7 7.0 8.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 0.5 0.9 5.2 -0.8 32.2 39.6 1.0 1.9 2.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 69 31 0 100 6.4 6.5 7.3 -1.1 28.7 34.8 6.7 7.3 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 6.1 6.2 5.8 -1.1 28.5 35.8 6.3 7.3 8.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 6.0 5.9 6.9 -1.1 26.1 35.2 6.1 6.8 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 5.0 5.3 6.1 -0.9 33.3 39.8 5.3 5.7 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 5.7 6.0 6.5 -0.6 39.4 43.5 5.7 6.8 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 6.4 6.3 6.6 -1.4 20.8 29.8 6.5 7.6 8.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 6.9 7.3 7.9 -1.0 31.3 36.9 7.3 8.0 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 6.8 6.8 6.4 -0.9 32.7 39.2 6.8 7.6 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 73 27 0 100 5.9 6.0 7.1 -1.7 21.2 27.6 6.5 7.4 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 4.9 5.1 5.1 -1.3 23.5 31.9 5.4 6.1 7.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 75 25 0 100 5.8 5.9 7.7 -1.5 24.2 28.7 6.3 6.9 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 3.0 2.0 4.2 -0.6 38.4 43.8 1.9 2.5 3.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 5.7 5.6 8.0 -1.4 24.4 31.2 5.9 6.4 7.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 76 24 0 100 5.3 5.3 7.5 -1.6 21.8 26.7 5.7 6.6 8.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 5.8 5.6 7.9 -1.3 24.5 29.5 5.9 7.0 8.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 5.6 5.0 6.7 -1.4 20.4 29.7 6.0 7.2 7.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 6.0 5.8 7.7 -1.4 28.5 32.9 6.3 6.7 8.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 7.0 6.5 6.2 -0.2 48.7 50.6 6.1 6.6 7.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 5.6 5.6 7.9 -1.4 28.1 32.4 6.1 6.9 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 5.3 5.0 6.3 -1.1 28.4 36.1 5.2 6.1 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 4.0 4.1 4.6 -1.1 28.4 35.5 4.3 5.4 6.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 75 25 0 100 6.1 6.3 7.9 -1.6 22.3 28.0 6.4 7.2 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------