***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.10.2017.-05.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 36.8 43.3 52.8 114.5 63.0 59.2 17.3 29.6 48.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 35.8 41.8 49.3 119.4 62.2 60.3 18.3 29.1 43.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 40.6 45.6 51.2 113.2 61.7 57.6 24.7 32.7 52.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 49.9 48.0 54.9 102.4 57.6 52.6 25.4 41.2 55.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 40.8 38.8 55.9 110.0 60.8 55.7 28.5 35.4 49.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 40.6 42.2 55.4 102.9 57.7 53.0 19.8 34.1 45.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 40.8 39.8 49.1 117.0 64.6 59.9 19.8 23.6 41.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 58.9 67.3 59.4 103.3 59.5 53.2 35.4 51.4 70.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 39.7 39.7 56.5 110.6 61.9 56.1 29.0 33.6 45.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 49.1 49.4 59.4 106.0 60.3 54.0 33.0 41.2 58.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 42.7 47.7 54.9 105.8 61.8 53.7 23.4 38.1 50.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 42.4 46.6 54.7 105.0 60.7 54.0 25.8 37.8 51.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 25.5 45.6 57.4 105.1 61.4 53.2 27.8 38.2 47.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 67.8 75.6 62.5 114.5 63.2 58.2 38.5 58.3 79.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 35.3 36.0 51.6 95.5 56.2 51.0 12.0 30.7 47.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 40.1 42.8 55.6 107.0 62.8 54.4 18.2 35.1 48.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 45.0 35.0 49.2 118.2 63.7 59.6 19.1 23.0 35.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 50.1 52.5 62.7 107.5 60.9 54.8 30.1 41.5 57.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 43.1 61.1 49.8 119.3 62.7 60.0 22.3 31.9 69.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 54.8 56.7 73.0 101.9 57.7 52.4 34.0 48.0 67.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 43.4 40.3 53.2 110.3 59.3 56.2 21.7 35.3 45.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 42.1 53.9 52.1 120.4 65.4 59.6 22.7 33.5 54.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 46.7 53.3 51.4 117.9 63.5 59.5 27.5 37.6 61.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 59.0 55.2 58.0 111.2 62.2 56.7 36.4 47.0 55.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 39.2 43.6 58.3 114.1 61.9 58.6 19.5 29.8 45.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 40.9 41.4 59.4 107.1 59.6 55.0 28.4 36.4 50.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 35.6 42.1 55.7 115.1 62.2 59.4 17.4 28.8 46.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 35.0 38.1 51.4 98.0 57.1 51.4 17.1 31.0 41.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 66.2 68.1 66.1 105.7 59.7 54.3 40.6 53.7 90.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 34.5 47.2 50.1 117.7 63.6 60.3 16.5 28.0 52.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------