***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.10.2017.-05.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9.3 11.3 11.3 90.7 62.0 51.8 0.9 8.2 11.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 6.8 9.9 10.8 94.2 62.5 52.0 0.4 4.5 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 8.0 13.1 11.2 92.3 62.9 51.2 0.6 5.2 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 7.4 9.9 13.3 101.4 63.4 53.6 1.3 4.9 11.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 7.3 10.4 13.0 103.9 63.3 52.5 0.4 4.6 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 1.2 5.8 12.9 106.9 64.8 51.7 0.1 2.6 6.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 6.8 9.2 10.6 91.4 62.6 51.7 0.2 4.0 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 11.1 11.3 13.1 97.4 60.0 50.6 1.3 8.6 14.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.8 9.2 13.0 102.0 62.8 52.1 0.0 5.4 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 9.5 10.5 13.4 98.3 60.2 50.5 0.6 7.6 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 3.0 9.0 12.5 104.4 63.4 51.9 0.3 6.2 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 8.0 12.8 12.3 103.8 63.0 52.3 0.4 5.9 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 1.8 9.4 13.8 112.4 64.3 52.2 0.1 3.8 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 16.2 14.4 12.7 87.0 59.1 49.2 3.8 10.9 23.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 4.5 6.1 12.8 96.8 63.7 54.6 0.2 2.0 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 1.6 7.7 13.0 110.0 63.4 52.4 0.0 3.2 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 5.1 6.2 10.6 91.8 61.6 50.9 0.2 2.7 8.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 11.5 10.2 13.5 92.2 57.9 49.0 2.9 8.6 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 7.8 8.5 10.9 94.0 62.2 51.9 0.6 4.9 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 10.7 9.5 16.5 92.9 57.1 48.6 1.0 7.2 17.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.7 9.8 11.8 96.8 62.0 51.1 0.3 7.5 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 5.0 9.6 11.1 91.7 60.7 50.7 0.2 1.8 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 8.4 7.4 11.1 92.7 61.4 51.5 1.9 5.6 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 4.5 13.1 12.4 90.9 61.4 49.7 1.7 9.1 14.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 6.5 7.7 12.7 97.0 60.8 52.4 0.6 3.9 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 1.5 4.5 13.6 107.1 62.0 52.0 0.3 3.0 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 8.3 10.6 11.8 92.0 60.9 51.6 0.4 6.4 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 4.4 5.8 12.7 101.8 64.4 53.3 0.4 2.3 6.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 18.1 18.6 14.2 91.7 57.7 48.8 3.3 15.5 20.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 7.2 9.8 11.1 93.7 62.9 52.6 0.8 4.3 10.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------