***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.10.2017.-29.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 6.7 8.5 12.4 109.2 61.7 51.1 2.0 4.8 10.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 4.5 7.9 11.0 107.5 60.6 52.7 0.9 3.1 9.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 8.0 10.1 12.5 111.7 62.2 51.4 2.0 5.9 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 11.5 11.7 12.2 95.4 59.6 49.2 1.7 9.4 13.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 8.6 11.0 12.2 96.2 60.8 49.8 1.7 6.3 14.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 6.0 5.8 13.0 99.2 60.0 51.5 0.8 3.9 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 4.4 6.0 10.5 102.4 60.5 52.4 1.2 3.0 7.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 11.5 11.4 13.1 95.2 58.7 49.5 1.4 8.9 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 8.0 7.3 12.8 99.3 61.9 50.2 2.5 6.3 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 7.8 8.1 13.1 95.7 59.0 49.1 2.1 4.7 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 6.6 6.2 11.2 90.6 58.6 48.7 2.0 4.0 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 5.6 5.7 11.6 93.2 59.6 50.1 1.4 3.0 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 6.5 4.4 11.9 91.5 56.7 49.5 1.9 3.8 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 11.3 12.2 14.9 110.6 61.7 51.4 2.7 7.5 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 5.8 6.2 12.4 95.4 62.2 49.1 1.2 4.2 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 6.2 4.2 11.3 91.1 58.1 50.0 1.0 3.1 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 5.9 7.2 10.5 101.5 60.0 52.7 0.7 3.9 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 3.1 8.1 14.2 100.1 60.6 50.0 2.1 6.6 9.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 6.6 8.1 11.5 111.5 61.7 52.0 1.4 4.1 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 3.4 9.2 18.6 105.8 58.1 50.6 1.4 7.1 9.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 7.5 7.7 12.2 101.2 61.9 49.8 3.2 5.1 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 6.8 8.8 11.8 107.4 60.3 50.9 1.2 3.8 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 8.7 10.9 12.1 113.2 62.5 50.9 1.6 5.3 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 3.4 9.5 13.6 106.1 63.7 51.0 2.6 7.0 10.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 5.3 5.6 12.5 97.8 57.3 48.8 1.0 4.2 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 7.8 8.2 14.6 108.9 63.3 53.5 1.3 3.5 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 6.3 4.8 12.3 103.0 59.3 50.5 0.8 4.1 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 6.7 6.7 11.4 92.3 58.9 48.8 1.5 5.1 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 5.2 13.5 15.7 103.6 60.7 50.7 5.2 9.5 15.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 5.8 8.7 11.7 111.1 61.2 52.3 0.7 4.2 9.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------