***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.10.2017.-22.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 21.6 32.6 17.7 168.2 79.4 63.7 0.9 8.9 17.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 13.4 17.9 16.0 168.3 78.1 63.4 0.5 3.0 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 18.0 23.2 17.1 164.6 79.1 62.5 1.0 7.4 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 16.8 18.8 18.7 148.5 74.3 58.9 2.2 4.8 11.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 15.7 17.1 18.6 157.2 76.0 60.7 1.9 4.4 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 6.5 16.0 19.4 150.1 75.7 61.0 0.8 3.5 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 13.1 17.3 15.7 159.2 75.6 61.5 0.7 2.8 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 4.3 24.4 19.8 152.2 76.7 58.9 6.1 7.8 16.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 14.5 17.9 18.4 162.7 76.7 61.8 2.6 6.9 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.3 29.4 19.1 151.9 75.8 58.3 3.8 8.0 14.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 14.9 17.5 19.1 150.9 77.0 59.3 2.4 7.3 14.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 15.1 20.0 19.4 158.2 78.2 60.6 2.1 6.4 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.2 16.2 19.7 157.0 77.1 58.3 1.3 7.0 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 25.0 31.9 21.1 165.0 78.1 61.8 7.6 13.1 25.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 13.4 15.1 18.2 148.9 74.6 60.2 0.9 3.5 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 12.7 17.0 19.7 159.2 77.8 60.7 2.9 4.1 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 12.6 11.3 15.7 158.9 75.1 62.2 0.6 1.8 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 10.9 21.7 20.3 154.4 73.4 59.9 3.9 6.1 16.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 18.4 23.5 16.4 172.5 80.1 63.9 1.2 8.9 19.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 11.7 20.8 22.2 133.4 70.3 56.8 3.9 6.6 17.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 17.0 23.8 18.1 165.4 78.8 62.7 1.8 4.1 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 16.9 24.2 16.5 166.2 78.7 63.4 0.6 4.9 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 17.5 28.2 17.3 171.6 80.3 63.3 1.9 8.1 18.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 19.9 25.4 19.7 163.0 77.3 62.0 3.4 10.0 19.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 15.0 22.4 20.4 166.7 78.9 62.0 1.2 1.8 14.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.5 18.8 21.2 158.7 76.6 60.9 0.9 6.3 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 16.5 22.8 19.2 167.8 79.2 63.3 1.4 4.7 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 11.9 12.7 17.6 143.5 74.7 59.1 2.0 5.3 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 17.7 22.8 21.3 144.0 70.7 58.4 4.9 11.6 22.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 15.4 19.4 16.3 169.0 79.1 63.6 0.8 6.2 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------