***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.10.2017.-15.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 0.7 4.1 11.4 96.9 65.3 52.5 0.1 1.4 4.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 1.2 13.2 11.5 114.2 69.1 55.1 0.0 2.5 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 10.1 8.4 10.3 90.3 62.4 50.9 0.2 4.2 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 2.3 10.1 10.8 71.2 56.6 46.5 1.9 5.0 16.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 1.9 11.3 12.2 87.9 60.3 50.7 0.5 4.1 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 11.5 7.8 10.0 63.9 50.6 43.9 1.8 7.6 15.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 5.2 13.1 12.3 120.3 70.0 56.1 0.1 1.3 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 4.4 12.7 13.4 77.0 54.6 46.8 2.8 9.3 18.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.1 9.8 12.2 87.1 59.2 51.5 0.5 6.3 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 2.5 11.1 13.7 85.6 58.6 50.2 2.3 5.4 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 1.4 5.3 12.1 81.2 58.7 49.0 0.3 3.2 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 0.6 2.1 11.4 73.2 54.0 46.3 0.3 1.5 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 2.2 4.6 12.0 71.4 52.0 45.1 1.1 4.6 16.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 2.8 17.5 13.7 100.9 64.3 50.6 1.0 6.6 19.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 6.4 2.1 8.2 52.8 53.6 43.1 0.0 1.0 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 1.2 3.3 11.7 75.7 54.9 47.6 0.4 2.8 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 4.0 12.7 12.4 126.1 71.6 56.5 0.1 0.8 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 3.9 16.7 14.7 89.9 59.2 51.0 2.4 8.6 20.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 0.9 11.3 11.1 106.6 66.4 53.7 0.0 1.8 10.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 3.0 8.4 15.8 80.1 55.2 47.0 2.6 6.5 13.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 10.0 11.3 11.1 85.1 60.6 50.8 1.2 5.2 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 7.6 13.4 12.7 125.2 70.2 56.1 0.0 3.6 10.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 0.6 10.0 10.8 100.2 64.1 52.1 0.2 1.3 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 3.6 14.2 12.3 90.0 60.8 50.2 2.2 7.8 19.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 7.3 13.6 12.8 98.1 67.3 53.5 0.6 2.0 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 2.1 4.6 10.1 62.8 52.3 42.6 1.0 4.5 17.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 1.3 7.9 12.4 101.8 67.1 53.4 0.5 2.8 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 0.7 2.7 9.7 63.0 53.9 44.7 0.1 1.6 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 7.0 21.2 15.0 87.6 58.5 49.3 3.7 15.8 26.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 0.6 6.7 11.1 104.7 65.3 53.3 0.1 1.3 7.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------