***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.10.2017.-05.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 16.7 16.1 15.9 0.1 46.7 50.6 15.6 16.4 17.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 16.7 16.4 15.8 0.0 47.1 49.4 15.7 16.4 17.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 17.1 16.7 16.3 0.2 48.1 51.0 16.0 16.8 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 10.8 10.9 13.7 0.7 59.3 57.7 8.9 10.4 11.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 17.3 16.7 14.5 0.3 48.1 51.5 15.7 16.9 17.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 16.8 16.3 12.9 0.0 45.9 48.6 14.8 16.3 17.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 16.3 16.0 15.7 0.0 46.5 48.9 15.5 16.1 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 8.6 8.1 13.1 0.0 47.8 49.4 7.6 8.2 9.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 17.5 17.4 15.3 0.4 51.5 53.0 15.9 17.2 18.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 17.2 16.9 14.1 0.2 50.2 51.0 15.3 16.9 17.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 17.5 17.0 14.6 0.2 49.2 51.2 15.5 17.1 18.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 17.1 16.5 13.9 0.2 49.0 50.9 15.1 16.7 18.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 16.1 16.9 13.9 -0.1 44.5 47.6 15.6 17.2 18.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 17.6 17.2 15.3 0.1 47.3 50.0 16.1 17.3 18.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 16.1 16.8 14.9 0.8 62.1 59.5 15.1 15.8 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 18.1 17.6 14.2 0.2 47.7 50.7 16.3 17.7 18.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 16.1 15.8 15.4 -0.2 46.3 47.1 15.3 15.9 16.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 16.6 16.1 13.7 0.1 47.4 49.7 14.7 16.2 16.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 16.9 16.6 16.1 0.1 48.3 50.7 15.5 16.7 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 12.2 13.4 11.3 -0.4 40.7 44.7 12.6 14.0 14.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 17.2 16.6 15.8 0.2 47.7 50.9 15.9 16.9 17.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 17.0 16.2 15.4 -0.2 43.7 45.7 15.8 16.8 17.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 17.1 16.9 16.4 0.3 50.9 53.1 15.7 16.8 17.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 17.5 17.0 15.3 0.2 48.8 51.1 16.2 17.0 18.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 16.2 15.6 14.5 0.1 46.8 50.2 15.4 15.9 16.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 15.7 16.6 13.2 0.0 44.6 48.6 15.3 17.0 17.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 16.8 16.1 15.2 0.0 45.6 49.4 15.8 16.5 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 16.9 17.1 14.3 0.7 60.2 58.2 15.4 16.6 17.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 11.2 12.3 12.9 -0.2 44.1 47.1 11.2 12.5 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 16.5 16.2 15.9 0.1 46.7 49.9 15.5 16.2 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------