***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.10.2017.-29.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 16.0 15.5 15.3 0.2 51.3 52.1 13.4 15.3 17.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 15.8 15.1 15.2 0.1 48.6 51.2 13.6 15.1 17.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 16.8 17.2 15.8 0.3 52.6 52.7 14.5 16.3 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 9.4 9.7 13.4 0.8 57.9 56.7 7.1 8.5 10.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 16.6 16.9 14.1 0.6 54.5 54.6 13.9 16.0 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 15.8 15.4 12.7 0.4 52.2 52.9 13.2 15.0 17.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 15.6 14.6 15.2 0.1 48.8 51.4 13.3 14.8 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 8.0 7.6 12.8 0.3 50.9 52.3 5.9 7.4 8.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 17.0 16.9 14.7 0.5 53.4 54.2 14.4 16.2 18.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 16.7 16.3 13.7 0.4 51.8 53.0 14.1 16.0 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 17.1 17.4 14.0 0.5 54.5 54.3 14.1 16.4 17.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 16.2 16.0 13.6 0.4 53.5 53.4 13.5 15.3 17.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 16.7 16.5 13.2 0.3 51.9 52.2 14.1 16.0 17.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 13.7 15.8 14.5 0.1 48.8 50.7 14.5 15.8 18.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 15.2 15.0 13.9 0.8 57.8 57.8 13.6 14.6 15.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 17.5 17.2 13.8 0.6 54.3 54.4 14.1 16.7 18.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 15.3 14.2 14.8 0.0 47.0 50.0 13.0 14.7 16.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 15.8 15.1 13.4 0.2 48.7 51.5 13.6 15.2 16.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 16.4 15.7 15.4 0.2 50.0 51.6 13.3 15.7 17.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 13.3 11.9 11.0 -0.1 44.7 48.9 10.9 12.5 14.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 16.8 17.2 15.1 0.4 52.3 53.3 14.4 16.2 17.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 16.5 15.0 14.7 -0.2 46.2 48.7 13.5 15.8 16.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 13.6 16.1 15.7 0.3 51.3 52.3 14.0 15.7 17.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 16.9 16.1 14.6 0.3 50.0 52.3 15.1 16.1 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 15.4 15.5 13.8 0.4 52.2 53.0 13.1 14.8 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 16.2 15.4 12.9 0.4 52.2 52.8 14.1 15.2 17.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 15.8 15.1 14.7 0.2 50.7 52.1 14.2 15.0 17.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 15.3 15.2 13.7 0.8 57.5 57.0 13.8 14.6 16.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 12.3 11.5 12.5 0.0 46.0 49.9 9.8 11.7 13.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 15.6 14.8 15.3 0.2 50.1 51.6 13.4 14.8 17.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------