***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.10.2017.-22.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 14.7 16.5 15.9 -0.8 38.2 43.5 14.8 17.2 18.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 15.2 16.6 15.9 -1.0 36.8 42.2 15.5 17.5 18.5 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 15.0 17.1 16.2 -0.9 37.1 43.1 16.4 18.1 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 8.0 10.4 13.8 0.0 52.1 49.7 9.1 10.2 12.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 14.7 17.6 14.5 -0.7 40.7 44.5 17.0 18.0 19.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 14.2 16.0 12.9 -0.9 35.4 43.1 15.7 16.7 18.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 14.9 15.9 15.8 -0.9 36.6 42.0 15.0 17.4 18.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 6.6 7.6 13.0 -1.0 34.9 43.3 7.2 8.8 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 15.1 17.8 15.3 -0.6 39.6 45.5 16.9 18.1 19.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 14.6 16.8 13.9 -0.9 36.5 43.8 16.5 17.2 18.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 14.7 16.9 14.7 -0.8 38.4 44.2 16.6 17.9 18.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 14.9 16.5 13.9 -0.8 36.3 44.1 16.1 17.5 18.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 15.7 16.7 14.0 -1.3 33.2 40.7 16.7 18.3 18.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 15.0 16.3 14.9 -1.3 32.2 40.8 16.4 18.5 18.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 14.9 16.7 15.5 0.4 58.1 53.2 15.0 16.3 17.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 15.9 17.6 14.3 -0.8 37.2 43.7 17.3 18.5 19.4 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 14.7 14.9 15.4 -1.1 35.8 40.8 14.3 17.0 17.6 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 14.1 15.5 13.3 -1.2 33.4 42.5 15.4 17.1 18.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 14.5 16.4 16.1 -0.9 37.4 42.8 15.8 17.5 18.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 11.8 12.3 11.2 -1.5 30.6 40.2 12.4 14.5 15.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 15.0 17.2 15.8 -0.8 37.8 43.5 16.9 17.8 19.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 14.8 15.0 15.4 -1.3 34.0 39.3 14.9 17.4 18.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 15.0 16.8 16.3 -0.8 38.6 43.9 16.2 17.6 18.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 15.4 16.0 15.0 -1.1 34.1 42.5 16.0 18.6 19.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 14.6 16.9 14.7 -0.7 40.5 43.7 16.2 17.1 17.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 15.1 16.1 13.3 -0.8 34.4 43.8 15.7 17.7 18.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 15.0 17.3 15.3 -0.9 37.5 42.8 17.0 17.7 18.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 15.5 17.5 14.5 0.1 51.5 50.8 14.5 17.5 18.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 10.6 11.1 12.5 -1.4 30.4 40.5 11.7 13.3 14.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 14.7 16.8 16.0 -0.9 36.4 42.6 15.9 17.5 18.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------