***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.10.2017.-15.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 17.3 18.6 17.7 0.0 46.1 49.6 16.5 19.0 20.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 19.9 19.2 17.8 -0.2 50.2 48.2 17.6 19.2 20.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 19.9 19.3 18.1 0.0 50.6 50.4 17.8 19.3 20.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 10.7 12.5 15.2 0.9 62.2 59.2 10.7 11.3 12.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 20.1 19.4 16.1 0.0 47.2 49.5 17.9 19.5 20.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 19.3 18.3 13.9 -0.7 39.9 42.7 17.7 18.7 19.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 19.6 18.7 17.5 -0.4 46.3 45.7 17.3 18.9 19.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 10.0 9.1 14.4 -0.4 43.3 45.8 8.7 9.3 10.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 20.0 19.5 17.4 0.3 52.1 53.4 18.4 19.3 20.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 19.6 19.1 15.6 -0.1 48.1 49.3 17.7 19.1 20.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 20.2 19.7 16.6 0.0 47.5 49.1 18.6 19.7 20.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 19.8 18.8 15.3 -0.2 46.2 47.8 17.7 19.4 20.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 20.4 19.1 15.8 -0.7 39.3 41.9 18.2 19.9 20.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 20.4 19.9 17.4 0.1 50.8 50.9 17.4 19.9 20.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 19.0 19.6 17.6 0.9 64.2 60.3 17.5 18.5 19.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 20.9 19.9 15.8 -0.3 44.8 46.2 19.1 20.3 20.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 19.4 18.1 17.1 -0.5 43.8 44.6 17.0 18.5 20.1 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 16.7 17.8 14.8 -0.4 44.5 45.9 16.7 18.2 19.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 19.7 19.3 18.2 0.1 52.7 51.1 17.2 19.1 20.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 13.8 14.3 12.4 -1.2 32.7 36.9 14.4 15.4 16.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 19.8 18.9 17.8 0.0 47.3 50.1 17.7 19.1 20.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 20.1 18.8 17.4 -0.5 42.9 44.6 17.8 19.3 20.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 20.1 20.0 18.6 0.5 58.1 55.9 17.7 19.6 20.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 20.1 19.4 17.1 0.0 50.2 50.1 17.7 19.4 20.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 17.3 18.6 16.5 -0.1 44.5 48.5 17.4 18.9 19.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 18.2 18.5 14.3 -0.8 37.3 40.6 18.2 19.3 20.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 17.3 18.4 16.9 -0.3 43.1 46.6 17.6 19.0 19.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 19.1 19.1 16.3 0.9 63.2 59.4 17.6 18.4 19.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 13.0 13.4 14.0 -0.8 38.4 41.6 12.8 14.7 15.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 19.5 18.8 17.9 -0.1 50.0 49.0 17.1 18.8 20.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------