***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.10.2017.-05.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 6.0 5.6 8.1 0.0 47.1 48.1 4.8 5.7 6.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.4 7.8 0.0 47.0 47.7 4.8 5.6 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 7.1 7.7 8.1 0.0 47.0 47.5 7.2 7.8 8.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 3.3 3.0 5.4 0.1 50.0 50.1 2.3 3.0 3.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 5.1 4.6 6.0 -0.1 45.1 46.5 4.1 4.8 5.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 3.6 3.9 3.5 -0.4 39.0 42.3 3.7 4.2 4.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 5.9 5.3 7.9 0.1 47.7 48.9 4.9 5.5 6.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 -0.3 -0.1 3.7 -0.5 35.3 39.3 -0.2 0.8 1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 6.2 5.8 6.2 -0.1 45.7 45.2 5.1 5.9 6.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 5.0 5.3 4.6 -0.3 39.9 41.7 5.0 5.6 6.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 4.4 4.8 5.2 -0.2 42.8 43.4 4.4 5.0 5.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 3.6 4.0 4.4 -0.3 38.6 41.6 3.6 4.3 4.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 4.0 4.1 4.2 -0.4 39.8 41.9 3.9 4.4 5.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 5.6 5.9 6.0 -0.1 43.2 45.4 5.7 6.0 6.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 5.8 5.5 6.6 0.2 51.5 51.1 5.0 5.5 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 5.4 5.8 4.8 -0.2 44.6 45.1 5.4 5.9 6.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 5.8 5.3 7.6 0.1 48.8 49.5 5.0 5.5 6.5 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 3.9 4.1 3.9 -0.4 40.2 42.0 3.9 4.5 5.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.3 7.8 0.0 45.4 47.0 4.7 5.6 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 0.4 0.6 2.1 -0.8 30.8 36.0 0.6 1.2 1.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 5.8 5.4 7.4 0.0 45.8 46.7 4.7 5.5 6.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 5.2 4.8 7.6 0.0 44.1 47.3 4.1 5.0 5.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 5.7 5.0 7.7 -0.1 42.4 45.9 4.7 5.4 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 4.8 5.0 5.8 -0.1 44.5 45.1 4.7 5.4 5.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 5.1 5.5 7.0 -0.1 45.6 46.7 5.3 5.5 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 4.3 4.7 3.8 -0.5 36.4 39.4 4.7 5.1 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 6.1 5.5 7.7 0.0 47.7 48.4 4.9 5.7 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 4.3 4.2 5.6 0.1 51.0 50.4 3.6 4.1 4.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 3.1 3.1 3.2 -0.6 35.2 38.3 3.0 3.9 4.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.2 5.8 8.0 0.0 46.6 47.5 5.0 6.0 6.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------