***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.10.2017.-05.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 6.4 5.9 7.4 1.2 62.8 61.6 3.4 5.0 6.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 5.8 5.2 7.1 1.3 64.4 62.3 2.5 3.8 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 7.1 7.2 7.3 1.2 62.3 61.2 4.9 6.6 7.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 2.2 2.2 4.4 1.0 59.6 59.2 0.0 1.6 3.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 4.2 4.2 4.8 1.0 58.6 59.1 1.6 3.6 5.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 0.1 3.0 2.7 0.7 54.9 57.0 0.3 2.1 4.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 5.4 5.1 7.1 1.2 62.4 61.5 2.5 4.0 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -1.9 0.7 3.0 0.9 57.8 58.2 -1.7 0.1 1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 5.4 5.5 5.2 1.1 60.5 59.8 2.7 4.8 5.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 1.8 4.5 3.8 1.0 59.4 59.0 2.4 3.6 5.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 0.7 4.1 4.0 0.8 57.9 58.2 1.7 3.1 5.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 0.0 3.1 3.4 0.9 57.6 58.0 0.9 1.9 4.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 0.4 2.7 3.2 0.8 55.4 56.9 0.4 2.4 5.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 5.3 5.2 5.1 1.1 60.4 59.9 3.4 4.8 6.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 4.9 4.8 5.2 0.9 58.9 59.4 2.2 4.3 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 1.7 4.5 3.6 0.8 57.9 57.6 2.3 3.9 5.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 5.6 5.5 6.9 1.2 64.3 61.8 3.4 3.9 5.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 2.6 4.2 3.0 1.0 59.5 59.0 1.1 1.8 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 5.8 5.2 7.1 1.3 64.1 62.4 2.7 4.4 5.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 0.1 0.3 1.6 0.9 56.0 57.4 -1.8 -0.8 1.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 5.1 5.5 6.5 1.1 61.6 60.8 1.9 4.6 5.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 5.3 4.7 6.7 1.2 63.7 61.7 2.4 3.5 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 5.6 5.1 6.9 1.2 61.8 61.7 2.4 4.5 5.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 4.3 4.7 4.7 1.0 61.1 59.7 2.3 3.7 5.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 5.8 5.9 6.1 1.2 62.5 61.3 2.4 4.6 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 0.9 2.4 2.8 0.6 52.6 55.9 1.0 2.1 5.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 6.2 5.7 6.9 1.3 62.2 61.4 2.7 4.7 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 3.1 3.7 4.4 0.9 58.3 58.6 0.7 2.4 4.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 2.7 2.9 2.6 0.9 58.2 58.6 0.6 1.8 4.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 6.0 5.6 7.2 1.2 63.0 62.0 2.7 4.5 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------