***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.10.2017.-29.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 2.7 5.1 7.8 0.1 55.4 51.1 3.4 5.0 6.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 5.5 4.7 7.3 -0.1 49.4 49.5 3.0 4.8 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 5.0 6.9 7.6 0.0 51.9 49.3 5.5 6.9 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 3.1 2.7 4.9 0.1 50.6 50.5 0.2 2.6 3.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 5.0 4.3 5.2 0.0 48.7 49.1 3.1 4.5 5.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 1.7 3.1 3.1 -0.1 43.7 48.8 2.1 3.6 5.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 5.6 5.0 7.4 0.0 50.9 50.2 2.4 4.9 6.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 0.8 -0.6 3.2 -0.3 41.9 46.0 -1.6 0.0 1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 6.1 5.6 5.5 -0.1 48.9 48.8 3.6 5.7 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 3.0 4.2 4.0 -0.3 42.9 46.4 3.0 5.0 6.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 2.6 4.3 4.5 -0.1 45.8 48.1 2.8 4.6 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 1.8 3.5 3.9 -0.2 45.9 47.9 2.3 4.0 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 2.1 4.1 3.6 -0.2 44.7 47.7 2.6 4.3 5.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 3.3 4.7 5.2 -0.4 42.5 45.4 4.2 5.3 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 5.0 4.6 5.8 0.2 50.2 51.6 2.9 4.6 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.2 5.3 4.1 -0.1 47.5 48.7 4.3 5.7 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 5.3 4.6 7.1 -0.1 49.7 49.4 3.4 4.7 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 1.6 2.8 3.1 -0.5 37.4 43.8 2.2 3.5 4.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 5.5 4.7 7.2 -0.1 48.6 48.9 2.9 4.7 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 1.9 -0.8 1.5 -0.7 36.7 42.9 -1.2 1.5 2.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 3.0 5.7 6.8 0.0 51.7 49.5 2.9 5.7 6.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 4.8 3.9 6.8 -0.2 47.1 47.7 2.4 4.2 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 5.2 4.6 7.0 -0.2 47.7 47.9 3.2 4.7 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 2.6 3.4 4.9 -0.4 41.3 45.4 3.0 4.7 5.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 6.0 5.5 6.4 0.1 52.3 50.5 4.2 5.5 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 2.8 3.7 3.3 -0.3 41.5 46.0 2.7 5.0 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 6.2 6.0 7.3 0.1 54.3 51.3 4.1 5.6 6.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 4.4 4.0 4.9 0.1 50.2 50.5 1.5 4.0 5.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 1.3 1.6 2.5 -0.7 37.3 43.1 1.3 2.8 4.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 5.9 5.2 7.4 0.0 50.9 49.9 3.2 5.1 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------