***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.10.2017.-22.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 6.5 5.4 8.3 -0.5 43.6 44.5 5.1 6.1 7.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.5 5.6 7.9 -0.5 43.0 43.9 5.1 6.0 7.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 8.5 7.7 8.4 -0.4 43.2 44.3 7.4 8.1 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 3.8 3.2 5.9 0.0 46.9 49.0 2.7 3.5 4.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 5.8 4.6 6.4 -0.4 41.5 44.3 4.2 5.4 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.2 3.7 4.0 -0.4 39.8 44.0 3.5 4.2 5.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 6.5 5.8 8.1 -0.4 44.6 45.1 4.5 6.1 7.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 -0.4 0.2 4.0 -0.7 37.5 40.1 -0.1 1.0 2.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 6.7 5.9 6.6 -0.4 42.7 44.3 5.3 6.2 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 6.6 5.9 4.9 -0.6 39.0 41.5 4.4 6.2 7.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 6.2 5.1 5.8 -0.5 42.2 43.6 3.9 5.8 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 5.5 4.1 4.9 -0.5 40.5 42.5 3.3 4.9 6.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 5.8 4.5 4.8 -0.6 41.5 42.3 3.3 5.1 5.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 7.0 6.1 6.3 -0.5 41.1 43.5 5.3 6.7 7.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 6.4 6.3 7.5 0.3 54.1 53.6 4.6 6.0 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 7.0 5.9 5.3 -0.4 42.5 44.8 5.3 6.7 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 6.4 5.4 7.7 -0.4 44.1 45.2 5.1 6.0 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 5.8 4.2 4.2 -0.7 37.9 41.0 3.7 5.3 6.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 6.7 5.6 8.0 -0.5 41.8 43.6 5.0 6.4 7.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 0.3 0.1 2.5 -1.1 32.7 36.9 0.1 2.1 3.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 6.4 5.7 7.7 -0.4 43.5 44.5 4.9 6.1 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 5.8 5.2 7.7 -0.5 41.6 43.8 4.2 5.4 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 6.8 5.9 7.9 -0.5 42.2 43.5 4.6 6.4 6.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 6.2 5.3 6.2 -0.5 41.2 43.6 4.8 5.9 6.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 7.0 6.3 7.4 -0.5 43.4 44.2 5.4 6.6 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 3.7 4.5 4.4 -0.7 37.9 40.8 4.2 5.2 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 7.0 6.1 7.9 -0.5 43.5 44.4 4.9 6.6 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 5.2 4.9 6.3 0.2 49.6 51.3 2.9 4.9 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 2.9 3.6 3.5 -0.9 34.9 38.4 3.4 4.4 5.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 7.0 6.4 8.2 -0.5 43.8 44.1 5.7 6.6 7.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------