***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.10.2017.-15.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 6.6 7.0 9.1 -0.7 37.3 38.6 6.9 7.6 8.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 7.8 7.1 8.9 -0.6 38.6 40.7 6.8 7.4 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.1 9.3 9.3 -0.7 37.9 39.4 9.0 9.8 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 5.5 4.6 6.6 -0.4 43.0 43.2 4.1 5.3 5.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 5.7 5.7 7.5 -0.7 38.7 38.9 5.6 6.4 7.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 4.7 4.5 4.1 -1.6 22.9 24.9 5.2 6.0 6.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 8.2 7.3 9.0 -0.5 41.2 42.7 6.8 7.9 8.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 75 25 0 100 0.6 0.6 4.4 -1.7 20.7 23.2 1.2 1.9 3.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 6.8 7.1 7.3 -1.1 32.2 32.7 7.1 7.7 8.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 6.4 6.6 5.5 -1.4 26.1 27.6 6.8 7.5 7.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 6.1 6.1 6.6 -1.2 28.5 30.7 6.2 6.9 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 5.2 5.2 5.4 -1.5 24.2 26.6 5.4 5.8 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 5.4 5.5 5.5 -1.5 26.8 28.2 5.8 6.5 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 8.4 7.5 7.5 -0.6 39.0 39.5 7.3 8.0 8.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 8.3 7.3 7.9 -0.7 36.8 37.6 7.3 8.0 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.2 7.3 6.1 -1.1 33.0 34.1 7.3 7.7 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 8.0 7.3 8.8 -0.3 44.2 45.0 7.0 7.6 8.8 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 5.7 5.7 5.2 -1.1 31.9 32.3 5.9 6.6 7.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 8.0 6.9 8.9 -0.6 37.3 39.7 6.8 7.6 8.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 80 20 0 100 1.5 1.6 2.8 -2.1 19.7 21.1 1.9 2.8 4.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 7.5 6.1 8.5 -0.9 36.9 36.4 6.0 6.8 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 7.2 6.3 9.0 -0.4 41.0 43.1 5.8 6.8 8.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 6.4 6.8 8.8 -0.8 34.2 37.0 6.7 7.3 8.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 7.6 7.0 7.4 -0.7 38.0 38.6 6.3 7.4 7.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 6.6 6.6 8.2 -1.0 33.9 35.8 6.5 7.3 8.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 5.5 6.0 4.9 -1.6 27.0 27.1 6.3 6.6 7.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 6.1 6.5 8.7 -0.7 38.0 39.7 6.5 6.9 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 6.5 5.8 6.8 -0.6 40.4 41.3 5.1 6.1 7.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 4.6 4.3 4.0 -1.7 24.0 25.2 4.6 5.8 6.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 8.1 7.2 9.1 -0.7 37.5 39.4 6.9 7.6 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------