***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2018.-04.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 18.0 15.8 33.3 66.4 34.2 33.5 15.3 31.9 46.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 16.9 17.0 31.4 69.2 34.8 35.4 17.0 27.6 44.0 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 17.1 27.8 34.4 69.3 35.7 35.0 24.4 33.8 53.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 26.0 37.1 44.6 78.9 42.6 39.7 26.8 39.0 55.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 22.5 33.4 38.5 72.8 40.8 37.0 30.3 35.4 49.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 19.6 22.9 37.2 70.2 37.8 36.3 17.6 35.8 50.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 16.5 17.8 30.8 68.2 33.7 35.1 17.7 22.5 40.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 33.9 42.8 45.0 76.4 42.4 40.1 36.5 53.3 71.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 22.7 33.8 37.6 71.0 39.0 35.8 30.7 37.0 45.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 28.2 38.5 42.7 73.9 41.6 37.9 35.8 41.5 52.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 23.1 28.0 37.2 70.0 39.0 36.0 25.1 37.8 48.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 20.0 32.9 38.7 72.3 39.2 37.8 26.9 38.0 45.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 21.6 37.9 38.3 70.6 39.3 36.4 29.3 39.8 47.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 31.4 39.0 43.4 71.6 38.1 35.4 36.4 60.3 78.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 14.4 26.3 47.9 84.3 46.8 42.4 13.6 29.1 49.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 18.1 22.6 36.9 71.0 39.6 36.3 21.0 35.4 46.9 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 17.3 17.7 31.5 70.8 35.7 36.3 16.7 24.7 35.8 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 30.7 38.6 47.3 77.7 44.5 39.3 33.7 44.3 60.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 20.0 19.8 32.7 70.1 35.7 35.5 17.0 33.4 62.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 56.1 49.1 62.0 85.7 47.8 44.4 33.9 51.2 65.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 22.6 29.5 35.8 69.9 36.7 35.3 24.1 36.3 46.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 18.9 25.2 33.8 72.2 37.5 36.4 21.2 34.2 49.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 21.3 32.2 35.0 71.0 37.5 35.5 20.0 38.9 58.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 28.4 39.6 41.2 72.4 40.9 36.3 31.4 49.3 55.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 18.4 19.7 37.9 69.4 35.3 34.9 19.4 29.8 45.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 24.7 34.1 43.9 77.3 42.5 40.5 31.0 37.3 50.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 17.6 16.7 33.6 64.6 32.6 32.5 16.7 27.2 47.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 17.4 30.5 42.5 78.9 43.6 39.7 15.7 32.0 41.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 46.9 60.3 51.7 80.6 45.6 40.7 42.1 62.1 89.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 15.4 14.8 32.4 68.8 34.6 35.4 13.6 29.8 48.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------