***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2018.-04.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 8.3 11.3 12.0 90.0 62.4 48.9 1.4 6.6 11.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 1.6 7.8 9.7 85.8 59.4 47.8 1.0 3.3 9.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 8.0 14.2 12.3 93.6 64.8 49.4 0.8 5.3 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 7.1 8.9 14.7 98.6 62.6 49.5 2.3 4.8 9.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 6.9 9.9 13.7 95.0 63.4 49.1 0.5 4.5 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 4.5 3.9 13.2 97.9 62.6 51.3 0.5 2.7 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 1.8 7.1 9.8 86.7 59.2 47.9 0.5 3.8 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 8.8 8.8 14.9 97.2 62.0 51.9 1.4 6.7 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.4 10.7 14.0 96.0 64.1 49.1 0.7 5.3 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 8.1 11.4 14.8 96.7 63.4 50.8 0.6 6.1 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 7.2 8.8 12.9 92.2 62.2 49.6 0.3 5.5 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 2.5 7.3 12.9 92.7 60.8 50.8 0.7 5.0 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 2.2 5.7 13.2 94.4 60.1 51.5 0.2 4.7 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 14.1 15.5 14.0 91.6 63.8 49.2 3.0 10.5 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 4.2 5.5 15.6 105.3 66.3 50.1 0.5 2.0 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 1.1 5.8 12.8 94.3 61.6 50.6 0.1 2.2 6.2 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 1.8 6.7 9.5 88.2 59.3 47.9 0.9 3.8 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 9.6 12.1 15.9 101.4 65.8 52.0 2.5 7.5 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 8.1 6.7 10.1 85.7 60.6 48.1 1.1 4.4 11.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 8.6 11.4 20.0 105.4 64.3 53.5 1.0 5.1 13.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.6 9.5 13.3 95.1 63.8 49.1 0.8 7.2 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 1.7 9.7 9.8 85.6 57.7 47.5 0.7 3.5 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 7.4 7.8 10.7 84.8 62.7 48.0 1.9 4.2 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 12.1 14.8 14.4 98.7 66.4 50.7 1.7 9.2 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 7.3 6.7 13.3 91.2 60.9 47.7 2.2 4.8 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 6.1 4.2 14.2 97.2 61.8 51.3 0.4 2.9 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 7.8 9.8 12.0 87.1 59.9 47.2 0.6 5.8 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 4.6 6.0 14.3 100.8 64.4 50.0 0.4 2.7 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 16.0 19.1 16.9 103.4 65.8 52.6 3.3 12.5 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 1.9 6.2 10.6 87.5 61.4 48.2 1.0 3.9 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------