***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.10.2018.-28.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 5.6 4.9 13.5 104.9 61.9 49.7 1.7 2.9 5.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 5.5 7.9 13.2 107.9 63.5 51.7 1.0 3.3 9.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 7.5 6.9 13.7 104.8 62.1 49.7 1.9 4.9 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 2.2 14.8 18.6 126.7 68.1 53.8 1.4 4.5 13.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 8.4 9.2 15.3 111.7 65.2 51.9 2.5 5.7 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 5.6 6.5 13.9 104.0 61.2 50.8 0.5 3.2 8.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 5.5 6.3 13.1 107.5 62.8 52.1 1.7 4.1 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 4.7 13.8 15.4 107.3 65.2 53.4 2.8 9.0 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 3.0 7.4 14.4 102.3 64.3 49.7 2.1 6.0 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 3.3 10.3 14.8 100.7 62.4 50.6 2.7 6.4 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 7.1 7.6 13.9 106.3 65.0 51.4 2.3 4.6 8.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 5.6 6.9 13.9 108.3 65.7 53.3 1.1 4.1 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 5.8 7.8 14.5 109.8 64.1 53.5 1.9 4.4 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 4.2 11.6 15.7 99.7 60.7 48.0 2.8 8.1 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 2.0 10.5 21.0 140.4 71.8 54.6 1.5 4.0 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 6.1 6.8 14.3 112.3 66.0 52.5 2.1 3.2 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 4.7 10.1 12.7 104.1 62.9 51.6 1.1 2.3 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 3.5 8.1 15.1 95.4 59.0 48.3 1.4 7.3 9.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 2.1 8.8 13.6 109.5 64.0 51.1 1.1 4.2 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 2.7 10.2 20.4 109.2 63.6 52.0 2.0 5.3 10.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 2.9 8.7 14.0 103.8 63.3 49.7 1.8 5.5 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 2.7 11.4 13.6 104.8 61.7 49.7 2.6 5.6 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 3.2 10.4 14.2 110.0 64.1 50.0 1.6 6.4 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 2.9 7.2 14.5 96.2 59.1 48.0 2.4 6.2 10.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 3.8 5.4 16.0 112.7 64.8 52.1 0.5 2.6 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 7.7 9.4 15.4 108.1 63.9 52.2 1.2 4.2 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 5.0 3.2 14.0 105.0 61.4 50.3 1.0 2.3 4.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 2.0 8.7 17.7 127.3 68.3 52.3 2.0 4.3 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 4.2 12.7 16.3 99.4 60.1 49.7 2.3 8.3 16.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.4 5.2 13.7 109.4 62.3 51.5 0.5 4.3 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------