***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2018.-21.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 2.0 4.8 6.4 51.9 46.1 34.5 2.7 6.2 15.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 1.8 4.2 7.2 63.9 49.6 36.7 0.5 4.4 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 3.1 5.5 7.2 59.2 47.6 36.8 1.3 8.4 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 3.2 8.7 9.5 73.9 57.2 42.6 3.2 6.7 15.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 3.2 8.4 7.6 62.7 50.7 39.2 1.7 8.2 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 1.5 5.7 8.2 70.6 54.6 43.1 1.0 3.4 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 1.3 3.0 6.7 59.8 47.4 35.2 0.9 3.8 8.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 5.1 10.8 9.3 71.0 50.7 42.0 5.3 10.2 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 3.1 8.3 7.3 62.9 51.3 38.5 4.5 7.8 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 5.3 11.1 8.6 69.3 51.2 40.8 2.8 10.9 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 3.7 10.0 8.2 65.3 48.9 38.8 2.0 10.0 14.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 2.9 7.5 8.2 66.8 50.0 39.1 1.6 7.6 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 3.9 9.0 8.5 71.9 54.1 45.6 1.1 8.0 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 6.8 15.0 10.3 69.2 50.2 39.7 7.8 14.7 26.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 1.3 4.6 10.1 76.1 60.2 40.9 1.0 3.1 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 2.7 7.4 8.1 69.0 53.0 42.5 1.3 6.6 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 0.6 1.6 7.5 66.0 48.7 35.4 0.6 1.8 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 3.7 8.6 9.5 69.7 51.0 38.8 3.8 7.9 17.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 3.9 9.4 7.6 65.5 50.3 37.5 3.3 9.3 13.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 4.3 7.2 11.2 63.5 46.9 38.3 2.9 9.0 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 2.1 5.9 6.8 58.0 49.5 36.0 2.0 6.0 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 2.1 5.6 8.6 70.9 50.7 37.3 0.6 5.6 12.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 3.3 8.3 8.2 66.6 51.2 39.0 2.4 8.2 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 5.3 14.0 9.2 68.6 50.8 38.9 3.4 13.8 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 1.5 3.1 7.1 53.9 47.4 36.9 1.4 4.0 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 2.0 8.0 8.9 70.5 53.8 38.9 0.5 6.1 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 1.9 4.6 6.3 49.0 45.1 34.1 2.4 5.2 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 2.3 7.5 9.1 75.5 58.7 42.4 3.0 5.3 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 6.5 13.5 10.5 69.2 50.1 38.6 6.1 13.4 22.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 2.7 6.4 7.0 60.7 48.4 37.0 1.2 6.8 12.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------