***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2018.-14.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 88 12 0 100 0.3 0.2 1.4 11.8 26.3 14.6 0.4 2.7 5.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 83 17 0 100 0.7 0.2 1.3 12.3 25.1 14.9 1.7 4.2 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 90 10 0 100 0.7 0.0 1.2 10.6 24.2 14.9 0.6 6.9 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 83 17 0 100 2.4 1.8 1.7 12.4 21.7 13.3 3.0 9.6 18.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 88 12 0 100 0.5 1.3 1.9 14.7 25.8 14.1 1.6 3.8 18.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 84 16 0 100 1.9 1.0 2.0 13.4 21.3 14.1 3.9 8.3 20.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 84 16 0 100 0.4 0.3 1.3 12.0 26.3 14.8 0.7 2.6 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 75 25 0 100 5.0 6.4 5.4 33.8 30.3 24.6 7.6 12.4 22.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 88 12 0 100 0.9 0.5 1.8 14.3 25.2 13.6 1.4 7.8 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 79 21 0 100 2.1 1.5 4.4 27.5 27.4 20.5 2.2 9.1 18.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 89 11 0 100 0.8 0.5 2.2 15.9 25.1 14.3 1.0 6.6 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 77 23 0 100 1.5 0.4 3.7 25.6 29.0 21.0 1.2 6.5 15.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 83 17 0 100 1.7 1.2 2.2 14.1 23.6 15.9 2.5 5.9 20.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 85 15 0 100 1.0 0.9 3.4 23.1 26.7 20.6 1.5 6.1 20.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 87 13 0 100 0.4 0.0 1.2 8.5 24.7 15.1 0.4 2.8 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 86 14 0 100 0.9 0.2 1.6 11.8 23.0 13.1 1.1 5.8 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 80 20 0 100 0.2 0.2 1.7 16.6 30.2 20.0 0.3 1.1 6.4 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 5.1 2.9 6.8 41.1 33.4 28.4 2.8 14.6 19.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 83 17 0 100 0.3 0.0 1.5 13.4 25.6 15.3 0.6 2.0 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 4.6 7.8 10.5 60.0 40.6 38.2 5.4 9.6 13.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 87 13 0 100 1.1 1.2 1.7 14.2 27.7 14.3 4.0 8.3 19.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 80 20 0 100 0.9 0.0 1.8 17.7 30.2 19.5 0.1 4.5 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 90 10 0 100 0.3 0.1 1.9 16.3 26.5 16.6 0.4 2.5 10.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 84 16 0 100 1.2 0.5 3.1 21.7 24.7 19.9 1.6 6.6 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 88 12 0 100 1.0 0.9 1.6 12.3 26.5 12.0 1.7 8.1 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 4.5 6.4 5.4 35.4 37.4 30.5 5.7 10.0 21.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 89 11 0 100 0.5 0.6 1.4 11.6 26.6 12.8 1.4 4.6 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 86 14 0 100 0.3 0.1 1.4 10.3 20.5 12.3 1.0 2.3 12.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 7.5 6.6 8.0 48.3 36.6 32.9 5.0 17.8 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 87 13 0 100 0.4 0.1 1.1 10.1 24.4 14.0 0.8 3.0 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------