***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2018.-04.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 13 87 100 18.1 20.0 18.7 2.6 90.9 84.1 15.5 16.4 17.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 11 89 100 18.0 19.0 18.8 2.7 90.9 85.5 16.0 16.7 17.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 15 85 100 18.3 19.9 19.0 2.6 90.4 84.1 16.2 16.9 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 11.8 12.5 15.4 2.1 83.9 78.9 9.2 10.7 11.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 18.6 19.4 16.7 2.1 85.5 78.6 15.9 17.3 18.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 17.9 18.5 15.2 1.8 79.9 74.0 15.1 16.7 18.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 13 87 100 17.6 18.9 18.7 2.6 89.5 84.8 15.8 16.4 16.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 9.5 10.0 15.4 1.9 81.2 75.2 7.6 8.5 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 18.6 19.6 17.4 2.1 86.1 78.6 16.1 17.5 18.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 18.3 18.8 16.3 2.0 82.4 75.7 15.5 17.0 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 18.8 19.5 16.9 2.1 85.5 77.8 15.8 17.4 18.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 18.4 19.1 16.2 2.0 84.5 77.1 15.2 16.8 18.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 18.8 19.7 16.5 2.0 83.4 76.6 16.0 17.5 18.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 18.7 19.7 17.8 2.3 84.7 79.3 16.6 17.3 18.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 17.2 18.2 16.8 2.3 88.6 82.3 15.4 16.1 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 19.3 20.2 16.6 2.1 85.9 77.7 16.4 18.1 18.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 12 88 100 17.2 18.0 18.4 2.6 88.6 84.4 15.5 16.2 16.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 17.6 18.2 16.0 2.0 81.7 75.1 15.0 16.3 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 10 90 100 18.0 19.3 19.0 2.8 91.4 85.5 15.8 16.7 17.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 15.0 15.3 13.9 1.7 76.8 72.1 12.7 14.2 14.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 18.3 19.7 18.1 2.2 87.5 79.9 16.0 17.1 18.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 18.1 18.7 18.4 2.5 88.1 83.5 16.1 17.1 17.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 9 91 100 18.2 19.7 19.2 2.8 92.3 85.5 16.0 17.0 17.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 18.6 20.2 17.7 2.3 85.4 78.9 16.7 17.1 18.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 17.2 18.6 16.9 2.2 85.8 80.9 15.4 16.2 17.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 16 84 100 18.8 19.5 16.0 2.3 86.4 81.1 15.6 17.4 18.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 16 84 100 18.1 19.7 18.0 2.4 88.3 82.9 15.9 16.7 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 17.6 18.4 16.0 2.0 84.4 78.5 15.8 16.8 17.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 14.2 15.0 15.3 1.8 78.6 73.2 11.7 12.6 14.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 11 89 100 17.7 19.2 18.9 2.8 91.2 85.7 15.8 16.5 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------