***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2018.-04.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 16.9 16.8 15.0 1.4 68.4 61.4 12.5 14.8 16.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 15.6 15.6 14.9 1.3 67.6 61.4 12.7 13.7 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 17.2 18.1 15.3 1.4 68.2 61.0 12.2 14.9 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 12.0 11.7 12.5 1.3 68.5 60.8 6.7 9.4 11.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 17.2 16.6 13.3 1.1 65.5 58.9 12.8 14.9 16.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 15.7 15.8 12.2 1.1 61.2 58.3 13.3 14.7 15.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 14.3 15.2 14.8 1.2 67.2 61.0 12.5 13.6 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 4.8 8.1 12.2 0.9 59.4 57.4 6.2 7.5 8.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 17.6 16.9 13.9 1.1 64.7 58.5 12.4 15.1 17.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 11.9 17.1 13.0 1.0 60.9 57.5 12.1 14.5 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 12.4 17.1 13.2 1.1 63.7 58.5 12.6 15.2 17.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 11.8 16.5 12.8 1.0 61.5 58.2 12.7 14.7 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 12.6 16.6 12.5 1.0 59.7 57.8 13.2 15.0 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 12.8 18.3 14.1 1.1 61.8 58.6 10.9 15.4 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 15.6 15.5 13.1 1.4 69.5 62.4 12.9 14.4 15.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 13.1 17.5 13.0 1.1 62.6 58.8 13.8 15.6 17.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 14.6 14.7 14.5 1.2 67.1 60.6 12.1 13.0 14.5 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 11.3 14.8 12.8 0.9 58.3 57.0 11.3 13.8 16.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 16.2 16.6 15.1 1.4 68.7 61.6 12.3 14.1 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 9.5 13.3 10.6 0.7 55.2 56.2 10.4 12.2 14.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 17.4 17.1 14.5 1.2 65.7 59.2 12.4 15.2 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 15.7 15.7 14.5 1.2 67.3 60.7 12.2 13.6 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 15.0 17.2 15.4 1.4 68.9 61.4 11.5 14.2 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 12.2 17.6 14.1 1.1 62.5 58.4 12.1 14.9 17.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 16.2 15.5 13.3 1.2 67.1 60.1 12.9 13.9 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 12.5 15.7 12.4 1.2 63.8 59.5 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 17.1 16.6 14.3 1.3 67.5 60.8 12.8 14.7 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 15.5 16.8 12.8 1.4 67.9 60.9 12.3 14.8 16.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 8.5 12.0 12.0 0.8 56.2 56.3 8.7 11.4 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 15.7 15.8 15.0 1.4 68.7 61.7 12.5 14.3 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------