***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.10.2018.-28.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 17.8 18.2 17.5 2.0 73.5 67.8 14.0 15.2 17.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 17.6 18.3 17.6 2.3 74.9 68.8 14.0 15.3 17.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 18.4 18.9 18.0 2.2 75.4 68.4 14.8 16.3 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 11.7 10.9 15.0 1.9 72.8 67.2 7.0 8.9 10.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 18.1 18.1 15.8 1.8 69.4 65.5 13.7 16.1 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 17.3 17.6 14.9 1.8 64.9 65.0 13.5 15.3 17.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 17.5 18.2 17.5 2.2 74.6 68.1 13.4 15.0 17.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 9.2 9.2 14.8 1.7 65.7 64.7 5.8 7.4 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 18.5 18.5 16.5 1.9 68.7 65.6 14.0 16.6 18.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 18.0 17.8 15.6 1.8 67.4 65.0 13.3 16.3 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 18.6 18.3 15.9 1.8 68.5 65.9 13.5 17.0 18.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 18.0 18.2 15.6 1.8 68.8 65.9 13.1 16.2 17.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 18.2 18.7 15.3 1.7 66.4 64.5 13.9 16.0 18.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 18.7 18.5 16.7 2.0 70.0 65.3 14.6 16.6 18.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 16.6 16.9 15.6 2.0 76.2 69.1 13.3 14.4 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 18.9 19.4 15.8 1.9 68.0 65.9 14.5 17.2 19.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 17.2 17.8 17.2 2.1 73.7 67.8 13.3 14.8 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 16.8 17.1 15.6 1.9 67.8 64.3 13.0 15.4 17.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 18.0 18.9 17.9 2.3 75.8 69.1 13.9 15.5 17.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 14.5 14.2 13.1 1.5 61.7 61.7 10.7 12.9 14.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 17.9 18.3 17.0 1.8 70.3 65.8 14.0 16.2 17.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 17.7 18.6 17.2 2.1 72.5 67.7 13.8 15.4 17.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 18.2 18.8 18.1 2.4 76.7 69.0 14.3 15.6 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 18.7 19.1 16.8 2.1 71.8 65.8 14.2 17.0 18.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 17.2 17.4 15.6 1.7 70.7 65.3 13.5 14.7 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 18.2 18.0 15.1 1.9 70.5 67.5 14.5 15.9 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 17.9 18.2 16.8 1.9 72.1 66.6 14.3 15.7 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 17.0 16.5 15.4 2.0 73.5 68.2 13.1 14.5 15.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 13.6 13.2 14.7 1.7 64.5 62.8 9.8 12.2 13.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 17.7 18.5 17.7 2.3 75.4 69.0 13.6 15.0 17.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------