***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2018.-21.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 21 79 100 19.4 20.1 20.2 2.8 80.9 76.4 15.1 17.9 19.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 18.9 19.3 20.4 3.0 81.4 76.8 16.6 18.3 18.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 19.3 19.7 20.5 2.8 78.7 74.5 17.7 18.3 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 12.7 12.6 16.6 2.2 74.2 70.4 9.4 11.1 12.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 19.8 19.6 18.1 2.1 72.3 69.2 17.1 18.1 19.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 17.9 19.1 16.4 1.7 66.8 65.1 15.2 17.4 18.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 18.5 19.2 20.2 2.9 81.1 77.0 16.5 17.6 18.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 10.7 10.6 16.7 1.9 69.4 66.6 7.3 9.0 10.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 19.9 20.5 18.9 2.2 73.3 69.7 17.5 18.5 19.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 19.3 19.3 17.6 2.0 68.5 66.9 16.7 17.9 18.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 19.9 20.1 18.4 2.1 70.0 68.2 16.8 18.3 19.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 19.6 19.6 17.6 2.1 71.3 68.7 16.3 17.9 19.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 20.2 20.3 18.0 2.0 70.2 68.5 16.3 18.6 19.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 19.8 19.9 19.1 2.3 70.9 69.2 18.0 18.7 19.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 18.4 19.0 18.4 2.6 81.2 75.3 15.1 16.3 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 20.5 21.0 18.0 2.1 71.1 69.1 17.0 18.9 20.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 18.4 18.8 19.9 2.8 80.2 75.8 15.4 17.4 17.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 18.7 18.5 17.3 2.0 67.5 66.2 16.0 17.9 18.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 19.1 19.6 20.5 3.0 81.1 76.3 16.9 18.0 18.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 16.4 15.7 15.3 1.8 65.9 65.0 12.9 14.4 15.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 19.4 19.9 19.6 2.3 74.6 70.5 17.7 18.0 19.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 19.2 19.5 19.8 2.6 79.8 74.2 15.7 18.4 18.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 19.1 19.8 20.6 3.0 80.5 75.7 16.6 18.3 18.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 19.7 19.6 19.1 2.3 71.0 69.0 17.7 18.6 19.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 18.8 19.1 18.5 2.4 76.7 72.6 16.5 17.3 18.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 19.3 20.2 17.4 2.4 77.7 72.8 16.3 17.5 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 21 79 100 19.4 19.8 19.5 2.6 79.5 75.1 17.2 17.9 19.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 18.7 19.7 17.3 2.2 74.8 70.5 15.6 16.1 18.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 15.2 15.1 16.6 1.9 65.4 65.1 13.1 13.7 15.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 22 78 100 18.7 19.2 20.5 3.0 81.3 77.0 16.9 17.9 18.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------