***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2018.-14.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 21.4 24.1 22.0 4.1 93.3 91.9 18.6 19.4 20.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 2 98 100 22.1 24.5 22.5 4.4 95.7 93.8 18.8 19.8 20.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 1 99 100 22.3 24.0 22.4 4.2 94.0 91.7 18.6 20.0 20.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 8 92 100 14.6 15.6 17.4 2.8 83.2 82.3 11.2 12.1 13.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 6 94 100 21.7 22.1 19.6 3.2 85.1 85.4 18.5 19.8 20.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 19 81 100 21.0 21.6 17.3 2.6 80.7 78.3 17.9 19.3 21.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 2 98 100 21.4 24.3 22.2 4.2 95.2 93.2 18.7 19.3 20.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 6 94 100 12.0 13.1 17.9 2.9 83.1 82.3 9.1 10.3 11.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 5 95 100 22.0 22.3 20.5 3.2 85.3 85.7 18.5 19.8 21.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 7 93 100 21.5 21.9 18.9 3.0 83.0 82.3 18.6 19.8 20.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 7 93 100 21.9 22.4 20.0 3.2 85.7 84.6 19.0 19.8 21.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 5 95 100 21.5 22.1 18.9 3.2 86.0 85.0 18.0 19.8 20.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 22.4 23.5 20.1 3.4 87.6 86.6 18.8 20.4 21.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 2 98 100 22.7 23.5 21.1 3.7 87.5 87.6 18.6 20.1 21.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 2 98 100 21.3 22.3 20.0 3.1 85.7 86.0 17.1 18.9 20.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 6 94 100 22.9 23.4 19.5 3.1 85.8 84.7 19.6 20.6 21.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 21.5 24.5 22.0 4.3 94.7 93.1 18.5 18.8 20.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 4 96 100 20.4 20.8 18.4 3.1 81.9 82.3 17.4 18.7 19.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 2 98 100 22.0 24.3 22.6 4.4 95.6 93.6 18.7 19.5 20.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 6 94 100 17.6 17.8 16.5 2.7 79.9 79.3 14.5 16.1 17.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 3 97 100 22.0 22.4 21.4 3.4 86.3 86.8 18.3 19.7 20.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 2 98 100 21.9 24.8 22.0 4.1 92.5 91.8 18.9 19.5 21.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 1 99 100 22.3 24.5 22.7 4.6 96.3 94.1 18.8 20.0 20.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 2 98 100 22.3 22.7 20.9 3.6 87.3 87.0 18.6 19.9 20.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 3 97 100 20.3 21.7 20.3 3.5 88.1 87.8 18.4 19.1 20.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 22.2 22.7 19.0 3.8 89.7 89.7 19.4 19.8 20.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 1 99 100 21.7 23.0 21.3 3.9 91.9 90.9 18.6 19.2 20.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 9 91 100 21.5 22.1 18.3 2.7 81.3 81.0 17.2 19.0 20.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 4 96 100 17.0 17.2 17.9 3.0 81.2 80.9 13.6 15.2 16.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 2 98 100 21.6 24.0 22.5 4.4 95.6 93.7 18.5 19.3 20.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------