***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2018.-04.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 6.9 7.4 9.8 1.8 83.5 77.6 5.0 5.9 6.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 6.8 7.4 9.3 1.6 81.6 76.7 4.8 5.9 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 8.8 9.3 9.8 1.7 84.2 78.8 7.4 7.9 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 4.2 4.6 6.5 1.2 77.8 72.3 2.5 3.2 3.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 5.9 6.3 7.3 1.3 78.6 73.5 4.3 4.8 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 5.1 5.2 5.0 1.0 74.4 68.8 3.8 4.5 4.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 7.0 7.4 9.3 1.6 79.6 76.1 5.0 5.8 6.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 1.6 1.8 5.3 1.1 76.0 71.4 0.0 1.0 1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 6.9 7.1 7.5 1.3 76.6 72.5 5.3 6.1 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 6.5 6.8 6.1 1.2 76.5 72.1 5.1 5.6 6.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 6.0 6.3 6.5 1.1 76.9 70.8 4.6 5.3 5.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 5.0 5.3 5.8 1.1 74.7 70.4 3.9 4.5 5.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 5.5 5.7 5.4 0.7 69.1 64.6 4.1 4.6 5.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 7.0 7.3 7.3 1.2 76.3 72.8 6.0 6.3 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 6.6 6.9 7.6 1.1 76.2 71.9 5.4 5.6 6.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 6.7 6.9 5.8 0.9 72.7 66.8 5.7 6.0 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 6.9 7.4 9.0 1.6 80.2 76.0 5.2 5.7 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 5.3 5.4 5.4 1.1 73.8 71.1 4.1 4.8 5.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 6.6 7.2 9.4 1.7 84.2 78.4 4.9 5.8 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 2.2 2.1 4.0 1.1 72.5 69.1 0.8 1.5 1.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 6.5 6.9 8.7 1.3 77.7 72.9 4.8 5.5 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 6.1 6.6 9.1 1.6 83.8 78.2 4.4 5.1 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 6.4 7.1 9.3 1.7 86.3 80.0 4.7 5.6 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 6.1 6.3 7.2 1.3 77.9 74.2 4.9 5.7 5.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 7.0 7.7 8.8 1.7 83.1 76.7 5.4 5.8 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 5.8 5.8 5.3 0.9 71.0 67.4 4.7 5.5 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 7.0 7.8 9.2 1.6 80.2 74.9 5.1 5.7 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 5.0 5.2 6.5 1.0 73.5 68.9 3.8 4.4 4.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 4.9 5.1 4.9 1.1 73.7 71.1 3.1 4.1 4.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 6.9 7.6 9.6 1.8 84.4 78.5 5.2 6.2 6.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------