***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2018.-04.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 6.7 6.1 7.3 1.1 68.6 60.9 3.5 4.6 5.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 6.1 5.2 6.7 1.0 66.0 59.3 2.8 3.8 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 8.2 7.6 7.2 1.1 69.2 61.2 5.2 6.6 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 3.7 2.7 4.3 1.0 66.0 60.4 0.7 1.8 2.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 5.2 4.8 4.7 0.9 65.9 59.7 1.6 3.3 4.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 4.2 4.3 3.2 1.1 67.5 61.8 0.5 1.9 4.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 5.8 5.4 6.9 1.0 68.9 59.8 2.9 4.1 5.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 1.5 0.9 3.1 1.0 65.6 60.5 -1.1 0.1 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 6.3 6.0 5.1 0.9 66.3 59.6 2.5 4.7 6.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 5.8 5.1 3.8 1.0 65.2 59.7 3.0 3.7 5.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 5.5 4.9 4.1 1.0 66.7 60.4 2.1 3.4 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 4.7 4.0 3.5 1.0 66.0 60.6 1.3 2.3 4.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 5.0 3.9 3.4 1.0 65.3 60.1 1.2 2.2 3.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 6.2 6.2 5.0 0.9 65.0 59.1 3.9 4.7 6.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 6.2 5.3 5.3 1.0 68.2 61.9 3.0 4.1 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 6.1 5.4 3.8 1.0 66.7 60.3 2.8 3.6 5.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 5.9 5.7 6.6 0.9 65.3 58.8 2.8 4.6 5.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 3.9 4.1 3.1 0.9 61.8 58.7 1.2 1.8 4.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 5.7 5.7 6.8 1.0 67.3 59.9 3.1 4.4 5.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 1.3 1.2 1.8 0.9 61.8 58.4 -1.5 -0.5 1.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 5.9 6.0 6.3 1.0 67.6 60.0 2.3 4.3 6.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 5.5 4.8 6.5 1.0 66.1 59.4 2.1 3.8 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 5.8 5.7 6.7 1.1 69.8 60.6 3.2 4.3 5.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 5.2 5.1 4.7 0.9 64.6 59.1 2.6 3.9 5.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 6.0 6.0 6.0 1.0 66.6 60.4 2.9 4.3 6.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 5.0 4.6 3.2 1.1 65.5 61.1 1.6 2.7 4.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 6.4 6.2 6.8 1.1 67.3 60.5 3.0 4.3 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 4.5 3.4 4.4 1.0 66.8 60.8 1.7 2.7 3.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 0.2 3.9 2.7 0.9 62.4 58.1 1.1 2.2 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 6.4 5.8 7.0 1.1 68.3 60.5 3.3 4.6 5.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------