***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.10.2018.-28.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 5.7 7.5 9.5 1.7 70.4 66.6 2.6 5.2 7.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 6.9 7.3 8.9 1.7 71.8 66.4 3.2 5.6 7.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 8.9 9.4 9.2 1.6 69.4 66.9 5.4 6.9 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 3.9 3.5 6.2 1.3 66.9 63.5 0.4 1.9 3.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 5.8 5.6 6.5 1.2 63.8 63.1 2.9 4.2 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 5.2 5.0 4.9 1.3 63.4 65.0 2.7 3.6 5.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 7.2 7.1 9.1 1.7 71.6 67.1 2.8 5.3 6.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 1.9 1.7 4.8 1.1 63.7 63.4 -1.7 0.1 1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 6.3 6.8 6.9 1.2 63.6 63.6 3.1 5.7 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 6.4 6.7 5.5 1.2 63.7 63.0 3.3 4.4 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 6.3 5.6 5.9 1.1 63.4 63.3 3.4 5.1 5.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 5.6 5.5 5.3 1.2 63.7 64.0 2.2 4.1 5.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 6.0 5.9 5.1 1.2 64.1 63.4 3.1 5.0 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 7.4 6.6 7.0 1.4 66.6 64.9 4.0 5.6 6.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 6.2 5.7 7.3 1.4 71.4 66.1 4.1 4.8 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 7.2 6.7 5.5 1.1 63.6 63.1 4.4 5.6 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 7.1 7.3 8.8 1.7 71.9 66.9 3.1 5.3 6.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 5.6 5.0 5.0 1.2 65.1 63.3 2.5 3.7 5.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 43 57 100 7.0 7.4 8.9 1.6 71.1 66.7 2.8 5.1 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 1.5 2.5 3.6 1.2 63.7 62.1 -1.0 1.1 2.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 7.0 6.5 8.3 1.4 65.9 64.4 2.5 5.6 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 6.7 6.6 8.6 1.7 72.2 67.9 2.1 4.9 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 6.7 7.0 8.7 1.6 69.4 67.3 2.8 5.0 6.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 6.3 6.5 6.6 1.3 65.8 64.8 3.0 4.3 6.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 6.2 7.6 8.0 1.5 66.6 64.3 3.6 5.7 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 6.3 6.2 5.0 1.3 64.2 65.5 3.3 4.9 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 6.4 7.6 8.9 1.7 68.6 65.7 3.3 5.7 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 5.1 4.9 6.3 1.2 67.3 63.8 2.4 3.6 4.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 4.7 5.3 4.5 1.2 65.0 63.1 1.0 2.1 5.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 7.2 8.1 9.2 1.7 72.1 67.1 3.1 5.4 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------