***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2018.-21.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 7.4 7.7 10.7 1.7 71.5 66.6 4.4 6.2 7.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 7.8 8.1 10.1 1.6 70.1 65.9 4.4 6.2 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 9.9 10.3 10.7 1.8 73.2 68.8 6.9 8.5 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 4.7 5.0 7.7 1.5 69.5 67.3 2.5 3.9 4.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 5.7 7.0 8.3 1.4 65.1 64.4 4.1 5.0 7.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 6.4 5.5 5.8 1.1 62.2 62.5 2.9 4.6 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 7.6 7.6 10.1 1.6 69.4 65.8 4.4 6.3 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 2.0 2.7 6.1 1.2 63.8 63.4 -0.6 1.7 2.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 7.1 8.2 8.4 1.3 66.0 63.8 5.3 6.7 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 6.7 7.4 6.9 1.2 64.3 63.7 4.8 6.3 7.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 6.3 6.6 7.5 1.2 63.4 63.5 4.4 6.0 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 5.0 6.2 6.7 1.1 62.6 62.1 3.4 4.5 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 5.5 5.5 6.1 0.6 57.0 57.0 3.4 4.9 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 7.1 7.9 8.0 1.1 64.1 63.3 4.9 6.6 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 7.4 7.7 8.9 1.6 73.9 69.4 4.0 6.4 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 7.0 7.3 6.7 0.9 60.0 60.2 5.2 6.5 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 44 56 100 7.4 8.0 9.8 1.5 69.9 65.6 4.5 6.3 7.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 5.9 6.0 6.1 1.1 62.8 62.2 3.3 5.5 6.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 8.0 8.1 10.2 1.7 72.2 67.8 4.4 6.8 7.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 2.1 2.3 4.7 0.8 57.8 59.1 -0.2 1.5 3.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 6.9 7.7 9.6 1.4 66.5 64.6 4.9 6.5 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 6.6 7.1 9.9 1.6 71.9 67.7 4.1 5.8 6.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 7.7 7.8 10.2 1.8 74.5 70.0 4.1 6.3 7.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 7.0 7.0 8.0 1.3 67.4 65.1 4.6 6.1 6.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 7.8 8.5 9.8 1.7 70.5 66.2 5.0 6.4 8.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 5.7 5.9 6.1 0.9 57.8 59.5 4.1 5.2 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 7.2 8.0 10.1 1.5 68.7 64.6 4.7 6.9 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 5.4 6.0 7.7 1.3 67.6 65.5 2.6 5.1 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 5.3 5.5 5.6 1.1 61.6 62.1 2.8 5.1 5.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 8.1 8.2 10.5 1.7 72.7 67.6 5.2 7.0 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------