***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2018.-14.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 10.5 11.8 11.9 2.5 84.4 83.7 6.9 7.7 8.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 6 94 100 9.5 10.7 11.4 2.3 84.2 83.0 7.2 7.6 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 5 95 100 11.3 12.0 12.0 2.4 84.3 83.7 9.2 10.3 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 89 11 100 5.7 6.4 7.8 1.0 69.2 66.2 5.0 5.5 6.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 15 85 100 8.7 8.9 9.7 1.8 76.8 76.7 6.4 7.3 8.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 92 8 100 6.7 6.9 6.0 0.4 54.8 55.4 5.4 6.6 7.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 12 88 100 9.4 10.6 11.1 2.0 81.6 79.7 7.2 7.8 9.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 3.9 3.5 7.1 1.2 71.2 69.5 1.7 2.6 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 9.1 9.2 9.6 1.6 75.3 74.9 7.3 8.5 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 8.6 8.8 8.0 1.4 74.4 72.5 7.5 8.0 8.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 44 56 100 8.4 8.5 8.6 1.1 68.8 67.6 6.5 7.6 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 44 56 100 7.4 7.5 7.7 1.1 70.0 67.5 5.7 6.7 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 88 12 100 7.6 7.5 6.9 0.2 52.6 52.5 5.7 7.4 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 9.8 9.9 9.2 1.4 74.7 72.5 7.6 8.5 9.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 90 10 100 8.4 8.4 8.8 0.3 54.8 54.8 7.5 8.2 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 8.4 8.9 7.4 0.4 58.2 57.5 7.6 8.2 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 11 89 100 9.9 10.6 10.9 2.1 83.2 81.4 7.4 7.7 9.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 8.0 8.3 7.4 1.3 73.2 70.5 6.4 6.9 8.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 3 97 100 9.4 11.2 11.6 2.5 85.5 84.7 7.1 7.8 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 4.4 4.3 6.1 1.4 69.0 69.0 2.0 3.0 4.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 8.8 8.9 10.5 1.5 76.4 74.3 6.2 7.5 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 5 95 100 9.1 10.0 11.3 2.2 84.7 83.4 6.4 7.1 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 3 97 100 8.9 9.8 11.7 2.5 86.4 85.5 7.1 7.8 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 8.7 9.1 9.3 1.5 75.9 74.2 6.8 7.3 8.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 3 97 100 9.9 11.5 11.4 2.5 85.5 84.2 6.9 7.8 9.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 7.6 7.9 6.7 0.5 59.0 56.5 6.3 7.4 8.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 17 83 100 10.5 11.3 11.2 2.1 79.6 78.3 6.8 7.6 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 91 9 100 6.9 7.1 7.5 0.3 55.3 53.9 5.6 6.7 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 6.9 6.7 6.9 1.4 72.5 70.8 5.5 6.1 6.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 3 97 100 10.1 11.4 11.9 2.5 85.8 84.4 7.3 7.7 9.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------