***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2012.-04.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 49.5 114.5 66.7 56.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 51.9 48.5 49.4 117.7 72.2 58.0 17.0 27.6 44.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 42.0 53.4 49.6 111.8 65.9 56.2 24.4 33.8 53.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 48.2 52.0 52.1 100.8 61.5 52.4 26.8 39.0 55.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 41.2 37.9 49.6 95.8 56.0 49.6 30.3 35.4 49.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 41.6 45.5 55.1 102.7 61.6 51.8 17.6 35.8 50.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 41.1 44.1 49.7 119.4 71.1 57.8 17.7 22.5 40.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 34.9 68.5 56.0 99.1 55.9 50.3 36.5 53.3 71.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 23.9 38.3 49.0 95.4 54.5 49.0 30.7 37.0 45.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 29.1 43.3 53.7 96.3 52.5 49.2 35.8 41.5 52.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 42.8 42.6 47.8 96.0 56.7 49.4 25.1 37.8 48.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 42.7 42.1 48.9 99.0 58.7 50.1 26.9 38.0 45.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 44.7 43.4 51.6 99.6 61.7 50.8 29.3 39.8 47.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 38.0 77.5 58.4 108.6 65.0 56.7 36.4 60.3 78.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 17.0 47.8 53.7 101.9 62.5 51.1 13.6 29.1 49.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 20.7 41.7 48.6 96.6 59.2 49.9 21.0 35.4 46.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 48.5 43.9 49.3 119.4 73.7 58.7 16.7 24.7 35.8 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 30.7 50.3 60.3 98.9 54.5 50.6 33.7 44.3 60.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 66.8 72.7 49.3 115.4 71.3 58.0 17.0 33.4 62.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 33.1 58.2 77.0 102.9 58.6 53.1 33.9 51.2 65.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 44.1 39.1 47.9 101.9 58.6 52.1 24.1 36.3 46.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 59.4 65.9 51.0 119.7 74.5 60.4 21.2 34.2 49.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 48.8 60.1 50.3 112.0 67.4 57.6 20.0 38.9 58.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 31.2 54.2 55.5 103.9 60.4 53.2 31.4 49.3 55.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 40.3 39.8 53.2 107.3 63.0 54.0 19.4 29.8 45.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 24.2 42.8 54.8 104.3 59.5 51.6 31.0 37.3 50.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 35.5 45.9 52.4 112.8 65.2 55.6 16.7 27.2 47.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 35.5 38.3 50.8 98.6 60.8 50.8 15.7 32.0 41.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 46.3 67.2 67.3 102.6 58.6 52.5 42.1 62.1 89.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 50.2 52.8 49.7 117.6 70.7 57.9 13.6 29.8 48.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------