***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2012.-04.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 12.8 142.0 75.0 60.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 5.7 10.1 11.8 125.5 71.1 56.4 1.0 3.3 9.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 7.5 15.9 13.2 138.1 74.8 59.1 0.8 5.3 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 7.0 14.1 14.9 140.0 73.0 59.8 2.3 4.8 9.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 6.8 14.4 13.6 128.4 73.2 58.3 0.5 4.5 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 4.3 7.2 14.5 132.4 71.5 59.7 0.5 2.7 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 5.7 9.9 11.5 125.0 69.1 55.7 0.5 3.8 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 8.8 15.1 15.3 136.0 75.4 60.2 1.4 6.7 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 7.1 13.1 13.1 122.7 71.6 57.4 0.7 5.3 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 8.2 13.0 14.4 127.5 73.4 58.6 0.6 6.1 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 7.2 10.7 13.3 133.5 75.0 59.0 0.3 5.5 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 7.1 14.2 13.5 140.5 74.0 60.4 0.7 5.0 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 6.6 10.3 13.9 138.8 70.4 59.9 0.2 4.7 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 13.6 21.6 15.7 132.5 74.8 58.5 3.0 10.5 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 4.2 10.8 16.1 152.8 76.0 59.8 0.5 2.0 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 4.0 7.3 13.6 136.8 73.8 60.0 0.1 2.2 6.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 6.2 10.1 11.0 121.1 67.9 55.4 0.9 3.8 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.7 16.1 16.5 129.7 72.9 57.9 2.5 7.5 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 7.8 13.6 12.2 126.5 72.7 56.8 1.1 4.4 11.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 9.3 21.2 21.5 134.7 74.4 59.3 1.0 5.1 13.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 8.3 10.6 12.8 129.9 69.9 59.1 0.8 7.2 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 6.6 15.2 11.3 116.8 69.4 55.9 0.7 3.5 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 7.2 15.1 13.1 128.8 75.0 57.8 1.9 4.2 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 11.7 18.9 15.1 132.9 75.2 58.4 1.7 9.2 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 7.0 12.0 14.1 137.4 71.5 59.1 2.2 4.8 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 5.3 10.3 14.6 148.1 69.7 61.4 0.4 2.9 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 7.5 12.0 13.4 137.4 72.5 58.8 0.6 5.8 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 4.7 8.9 14.9 142.6 73.9 60.2 0.4 2.7 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 16.3 22.9 18.6 133.0 73.4 58.1 3.3 12.5 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 6.1 10.8 12.3 132.4 73.0 57.6 1.0 3.9 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------