***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.10.2012.-28.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 0.0 12.1 111.3 62.8 54.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 5.3 8.6 12.2 111.4 64.4 54.6 1.0 3.3 9.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 7.2 7.0 11.9 106.9 62.2 52.0 1.9 4.9 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 8.0 7.4 13.2 93.0 56.6 50.6 1.4 4.5 13.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 8.4 7.7 12.9 95.3 56.9 50.3 2.5 5.7 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 1.3 8.0 14.6 101.1 63.8 48.7 0.5 3.2 8.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 5.6 8.3 12.7 119.1 69.8 55.9 1.7 4.1 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 11.9 10.2 14.4 97.4 58.1 49.7 2.8 9.0 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.3 7.3 13.0 99.4 58.0 50.7 2.1 6.0 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 8.8 8.9 13.7 95.0 55.7 49.1 2.7 6.4 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 2.3 7.5 12.4 96.7 60.6 49.8 2.3 4.6 8.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 5.6 6.1 12.9 102.0 59.7 50.3 1.1 4.1 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 1.9 7.0 13.6 102.6 62.1 50.4 1.9 4.4 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 10.9 9.4 13.1 90.9 53.0 48.9 2.8 8.1 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 6.3 6.0 13.7 91.9 61.1 50.6 1.5 4.0 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 1.4 4.9 12.6 97.4 59.9 49.5 2.1 3.2 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 4.5 11.7 12.7 111.7 66.2 55.3 1.1 2.3 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 9.5 7.4 14.4 90.4 51.6 47.7 1.4 7.3 9.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 7.2 7.4 11.7 104.5 61.2 52.3 1.1 4.2 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 8.4 6.9 18.7 93.6 54.0 49.7 2.0 5.3 10.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 7.7 8.0 12.4 104.6 61.5 52.7 1.8 5.5 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 7.9 11.4 12.3 102.8 61.9 54.2 2.6 5.6 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 9.6 9.2 11.3 95.5 57.1 49.1 1.6 6.4 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 8.3 6.4 13.0 93.5 53.5 48.4 2.4 6.2 10.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 3.7 5.4 13.3 103.4 64.7 54.0 0.5 2.6 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 2.0 9.6 14.9 110.8 64.7 52.8 1.2 4.2 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 4.6 3.5 12.9 108.6 63.8 54.7 1.0 2.3 4.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.1 5.6 13.0 91.5 57.5 49.2 2.0 4.3 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 11.1 8.4 15.8 91.4 51.7 48.1 2.3 8.3 16.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 6.1 5.9 12.1 112.4 65.9 54.2 0.5 4.3 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------