***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2012.-21.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 0.0 14.3 141.8 74.2 59.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 8.8 11.2 14.8 166.0 76.7 62.3 0.5 4.4 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 11.3 18.8 14.1 141.0 73.8 58.4 1.3 8.4 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 10.1 13.0 15.0 119.8 63.9 55.8 3.2 6.7 15.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 10.4 14.7 13.6 111.4 65.1 53.6 1.7 8.2 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 6.2 7.8 15.7 105.0 60.1 53.7 1.0 3.4 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 5.9 10.3 14.8 164.6 73.7 61.4 0.9 3.8 8.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 12.7 17.5 15.7 114.3 68.1 55.1 5.3 10.2 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.1 14.4 13.3 109.6 66.6 53.4 4.5 7.8 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 14.4 16.6 14.7 111.6 67.4 54.3 2.8 10.9 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.9 14.1 13.0 107.2 66.3 53.3 2.0 10.0 14.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 9.3 11.3 13.5 110.9 66.3 53.6 1.6 7.6 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 10.0 10.9 14.2 105.5 60.7 53.2 1.1 8.0 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 18.4 29.2 16.5 139.6 71.2 57.4 7.8 14.7 26.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 6.6 6.8 16.6 123.0 65.8 54.4 1.0 3.1 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.8 12.6 13.4 103.9 62.4 52.7 1.3 6.6 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 9.9 13.7 14.6 168.9 74.4 62.9 0.6 1.8 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 11.4 17.5 16.8 114.1 65.2 55.0 3.8 7.9 17.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.4 21.4 14.7 162.2 76.8 61.4 3.3 9.3 13.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 12.7 17.6 22.4 117.7 66.5 57.8 2.9 9.0 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.7 15.9 13.1 119.9 70.0 56.0 2.0 6.0 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 12.7 16.4 15.0 170.5 76.4 63.4 0.6 5.6 12.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 10.8 18.7 14.8 154.4 75.2 59.6 2.4 8.2 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 16.6 17.7 15.4 125.3 67.3 55.4 3.4 13.8 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 7.2 15.3 15.6 128.2 68.9 57.2 1.4 4.0 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 9.1 9.7 15.4 115.9 62.8 56.0 0.5 6.1 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 7.7 15.8 15.4 140.2 72.1 58.9 2.4 5.2 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 7.2 9.9 14.7 114.1 63.3 54.4 3.0 5.3 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 17.2 22.7 19.3 118.4 67.1 56.4 6.1 13.4 22.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 9.3 17.3 14.8 160.0 76.8 61.0 1.2 6.8 12.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------