***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2012.-14.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 9999.0 0.0 10.3 77.7 53.3 47.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 7.3 7.2 10.5 83.4 58.1 49.7 1.7 4.2 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 10.7 8.1 10.4 76.2 52.7 46.8 0.6 6.9 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 13.8 11.7 9.0 62.7 52.6 44.0 3.0 9.6 18.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 7.8 3.6 9.5 61.4 49.5 43.7 1.6 3.8 18.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 11.4 8.6 10.2 77.4 52.7 46.4 3.9 8.3 20.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 7.0 6.8 10.7 83.9 57.6 49.2 0.7 2.6 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 15.9 9.4 10.6 63.5 43.6 42.2 7.6 12.4 22.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 10.5 7.2 9.6 62.1 47.4 43.5 1.4 7.8 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 11.6 7.0 10.9 64.7 45.0 42.8 2.2 9.1 18.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 9.8 5.0 9.2 61.5 47.3 43.3 1.0 6.6 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 9.4 2.5 9.0 60.2 45.7 42.0 1.2 6.5 15.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 9.6 5.9 9.8 65.5 49.9 43.6 2.5 5.9 20.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 11.7 5.5 13.0 83.4 48.6 45.6 1.5 6.1 20.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 6.9 2.6 7.4 53.3 47.2 41.2 0.4 2.8 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 9.1 6.2 9.0 62.0 50.2 42.9 1.1 5.8 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 4.1 4.5 11.0 90.5 59.3 52.3 0.3 1.1 6.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 16.8 7.0 12.6 71.7 44.5 43.3 2.8 14.6 19.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 6.7 3.7 10.7 83.4 56.8 48.9 0.6 2.0 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 12.1 8.7 14.4 72.8 45.7 44.0 5.4 9.6 13.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 11.1 9.0 9.6 67.0 50.7 46.1 4.0 8.3 19.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 8.3 9.4 12.3 101.8 61.4 54.4 0.1 4.5 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 7.2 3.0 11.1 83.6 52.5 47.1 0.4 2.5 10.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 10.2 6.3 11.8 75.4 48.4 44.9 1.6 6.6 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 11.3 11.2 10.3 71.6 54.5 46.0 1.7 8.1 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 13.7 9.6 9.9 62.0 48.3 43.9 5.7 10.0 21.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 8.8 5.8 10.7 77.4 54.7 47.7 1.4 4.6 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 6.2 1.9 8.1 58.1 48.8 42.5 1.0 2.3 12.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 20.7 14.1 13.6 75.7 45.2 44.1 5.0 17.8 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 7.5 3.2 10.5 81.1 54.4 48.1 0.8 3.0 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------