***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2012.-04.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 14.5 1.1 59.1 59.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 14.4 15.2 14.3 1.2 61.4 60.1 12.7 13.7 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 15.6 16.8 14.7 1.2 58.7 59.2 12.2 14.9 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 10.3 10.2 12.7 0.9 56.7 58.0 6.7 9.4 11.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 15.6 15.4 13.2 1.0 55.8 56.9 12.8 14.9 16.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 15.6 15.5 12.2 1.0 54.5 56.7 13.3 14.7 15.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 14.2 14.7 14.2 1.1 61.2 59.7 12.5 13.6 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 8.2 7.6 12.1 0.8 52.3 54.1 6.2 7.5 8.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 15.9 16.4 13.7 1.1 55.5 57.1 12.4 15.1 17.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 15.3 15.0 12.8 0.9 54.0 55.2 12.1 14.5 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 15.9 15.9 13.1 1.0 55.6 56.7 12.6 15.2 17.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 15.5 15.2 12.8 0.9 53.7 55.4 12.7 14.7 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 15.8 15.4 12.6 1.0 55.0 56.0 13.2 15.0 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 16.2 16.4 13.7 1.0 55.4 57.2 10.9 15.4 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 14.9 15.0 12.8 1.0 58.6 60.0 12.9 14.4 15.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 16.4 16.3 12.9 1.0 55.6 56.8 13.8 15.6 17.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 13.5 14.2 13.8 1.0 60.7 58.8 12.1 13.0 14.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 14.3 14.0 12.3 0.8 52.7 54.0 11.3 13.8 16.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 14.8 15.9 14.6 1.2 60.4 60.4 12.3 14.1 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 12.9 12.2 10.2 0.4 48.8 50.9 10.4 12.2 14.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 15.9 16.2 14.2 1.1 57.1 58.0 12.4 15.2 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 14.3 15.4 14.0 1.0 59.6 58.8 12.2 13.6 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 14.8 15.6 14.7 1.3 59.4 60.2 11.5 14.2 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 15.6 16.0 13.7 1.0 55.1 56.8 12.1 14.9 17.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 14.6 14.3 13.1 1.0 57.3 58.3 12.9 13.9 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 15.7 15.0 12.3 0.8 52.3 55.2 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 15.4 15.9 13.8 1.1 58.5 58.9 12.8 14.7 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 15.5 15.5 12.9 1.0 56.7 58.5 12.3 14.8 16.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 12.1 11.4 11.4 0.6 50.7 52.4 8.7 11.4 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 14.8 15.3 14.5 1.2 60.4 60.1 12.5 14.3 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------