***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.10.2012.-28.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 9999.0 0.0 15.8 0.7 59.6 60.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 17.5 16.4 15.5 0.6 55.8 59.9 14.0 15.3 17.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 18.4 17.2 16.0 0.7 59.0 61.2 14.8 16.3 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 11.4 9.9 14.1 0.7 63.6 61.2 7.0 8.9 10.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 18.0 17.0 14.6 0.8 61.0 61.8 13.7 16.1 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 17.5 17.5 13.5 0.9 61.8 63.9 13.5 15.3 17.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 17.3 16.2 15.4 0.5 55.7 59.1 13.4 15.0 17.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 9.3 8.8 13.6 0.7 57.4 62.6 5.8 7.4 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 18.5 17.9 15.1 0.8 61.1 62.0 14.0 16.6 18.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 18.1 17.0 14.2 0.7 58.9 62.3 13.3 16.3 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 18.6 17.9 14.5 0.9 62.5 63.2 13.5 17.0 18.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 18.0 17.2 14.4 0.9 62.1 63.6 13.1 16.2 17.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 18.4 18.3 14.2 1.0 63.3 64.3 13.9 16.0 18.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 19.0 16.9 15.1 0.6 55.4 60.7 14.6 16.6 18.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 16.4 15.5 14.3 0.8 65.9 62.1 13.3 14.4 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 19.1 18.8 14.4 0.9 63.1 63.6 14.5 17.2 19.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 17.2 14.9 15.0 0.3 51.8 57.7 13.3 14.8 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 17.0 15.9 13.8 0.6 52.8 61.5 13.0 15.4 17.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 18.0 16.6 15.8 0.7 57.1 60.7 13.9 15.5 17.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 14.7 12.4 11.8 0.4 46.8 60.0 10.7 12.9 14.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 17.9 17.6 15.5 0.7 60.6 61.2 14.0 16.2 17.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 18.0 15.7 15.1 0.3 53.5 58.2 13.8 15.4 17.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 18.2 17.0 16.0 0.8 59.3 61.6 14.3 15.6 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 18.9 17.4 15.1 0.7 55.9 61.9 14.2 17.0 18.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 17.1 16.0 14.4 0.7 61.2 60.2 13.5 14.7 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 18.2 16.4 13.8 0.8 53.8 63.6 14.5 15.9 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 17.8 17.1 15.1 0.6 60.0 60.1 14.3 15.7 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 16.8 15.6 14.4 0.8 64.7 62.2 13.1 14.5 15.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 13.8 12.2 13.0 0.5 50.4 60.5 9.8 12.2 13.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 17.7 16.7 15.8 0.6 58.6 60.4 13.6 15.0 17.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------