***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2012.-21.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 17.6 1.2 64.5 59.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 18.5 18.4 17.3 1.1 63.5 58.3 16.6 18.3 18.5 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 15.5 19.1 17.7 1.3 64.7 60.0 17.7 18.3 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 8.2 11.8 16.1 1.3 63.5 59.6 9.4 11.1 12.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 15.7 19.5 16.4 1.3 65.2 59.4 17.1 18.1 19.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 18.1 18.8 15.4 1.6 62.0 61.6 15.2 17.4 18.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 15.5 18.2 17.2 1.0 63.5 58.3 16.5 17.6 18.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 6.6 9.4 15.2 1.2 60.6 58.0 7.3 9.0 10.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 15.8 19.9 16.8 1.3 66.0 59.6 17.5 18.5 19.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 15.4 18.5 15.8 1.2 62.8 58.5 16.7 17.9 18.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 15.5 18.9 16.3 1.4 64.1 59.8 16.8 18.3 19.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 15.0 18.8 16.1 1.4 62.1 59.5 16.3 17.9 19.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 20.3 19.3 16.0 1.6 64.3 60.7 16.3 18.6 19.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 19.1 19.2 16.4 1.0 62.7 57.5 18.0 18.7 19.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 17.9 17.6 16.5 1.5 68.0 61.8 15.1 16.3 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 16.3 20.0 16.2 1.5 64.6 60.5 17.0 18.9 20.1 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 15.4 17.7 16.7 0.7 58.7 55.4 15.4 17.4 17.9 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 15.1 18.0 15.2 1.1 59.2 57.1 16.0 17.9 18.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 18.4 18.4 17.5 1.1 64.2 59.0 16.9 18.0 18.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 11.9 14.7 13.2 0.8 52.8 55.2 12.9 14.4 15.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 15.4 19.2 17.3 1.3 64.6 59.7 17.7 18.0 19.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 16.1 18.5 16.7 0.6 55.6 54.9 15.7 18.4 18.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 15.9 18.6 17.6 1.2 65.4 59.6 16.6 18.3 18.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 16.1 19.2 16.5 1.2 63.6 58.5 17.7 18.6 19.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 15.2 17.8 16.3 1.2 63.4 59.4 16.5 17.3 18.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 18.1 18.7 15.7 1.3 59.4 59.2 16.3 17.5 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 15.5 19.2 16.9 1.2 63.8 59.3 17.2 17.9 19.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 14.9 18.5 16.5 1.4 64.5 60.7 15.6 16.1 18.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 11.0 14.0 14.3 0.9 56.6 55.9 13.1 13.7 15.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 18.2 18.7 17.6 1.2 65.1 59.5 16.9 17.9 18.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------